Patronato
vs
Agropecuario
Garuda Lions Prediction: Patronato
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.57.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Patronato is the favourite, not a value bet.
Patronato vs Agropecuario overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Patronato vs Agropecuario
| Probability | Patronato | Draw | Agropecuario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 30.8% | 14.8% |
| Market | 55.7% | 27.0% | 17.3% |
| Final | 55.4% | 27.9% | 16.7% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +1.0% | -0.6% |
Why Patronato
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.57.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.5% per unit staked (our 55.4% × 1.67 − 1).
Patronato vs Agropecuario match preview
Patronato enters the match against Agropecuario with a 54% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 31% and Agropecuario at 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 19%. Expected goals for Patronato are 1.34, compared to Agropecuario's 0.57, indicating a significant disparity in offensive potential.
In terms of recent form, Patronato has recorded a mixed set of results with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Agropecuario, on the other hand, has also struggled, with two wins and three losses in their recent outings. The head-to-head record shows one draw and no wins for either side in their last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Patronato and Agropecuario expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.91
Patronato and Agropecuario attack and defence ratings
Patronato
Agropecuario
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page
- Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron
- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page
- Racing Cordoba v All Boys — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats
- Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes
Before and after this match
Patronato vs Agropecuario markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patronato | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.3% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patronato | 55.4% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Agropecuario | 16.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.2% |
| No | 66.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Patronato win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.7% |
| 0-0 | 16.0% | |
| 2-0 | 13.2% |
Patronato vs Agropecuario stats
Patronato and Agropecuario recent form
| Patronato |
LWLWDD |
| Agropecuario |
LWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Patronato and Agropecuario season so far
Patronato record
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Agropecuario record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
Patronato vs Agropecuario head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Agropecuario | Patronato | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Patronato vs Agropecuario odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.8%, draw 26.9%, away 17.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 3.34 | 5.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.34 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 3.56 | 5.52 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.06 | 4.65 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .