Ferro Carril Oeste
vs
Chaco For Ever
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ferro Carril Oeste
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ferro Carril Oeste is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever
| Probability | Ferro Carril Oeste | Draw | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.6% | 33.4% | 24.0% |
| Market | 62.5% | 25.2% | 12.3% |
| Final | 57.6% | 27.3% | 15.2% |
| Edge | -5.0% | +2.1% | +2.9% |
Why Ferro Carril Oeste
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.5% per unit staked (our 57.6% × 1.52 − 1).
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever match preview
Ferro Carril Oeste faces Chaco For Ever in a Primera Nacional matchup on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Ferro Carril Oeste has a 36% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 34% and Chaco For Ever at 29%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Ferro Carril Oeste, with a 14% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.02 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.89 for Chaco For Ever.
In terms of recent form, Ferro Carril Oeste has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Chaco For Ever has performed slightly better with three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Ferro Carril Oeste with one win against Chaco For Ever, who has yet to secure a victory in their last encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Chaco For Ever expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.93
Ferro Carril Oeste and Chaco For Ever attack and defence ratings
Ferro Carril Oeste
Chaco For Ever
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
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- Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo
- Colegiales v Atletico DE Rafaela — match page
- Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe — team news & stats
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page
- Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron
- Patronato vs Agropecuario
Before and after this match
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 57.6% | 1.74 | -5.0% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 57.6% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Chaco For Ever | 15.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.5% |
| No | 61.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferro Carril Oeste win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 57.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.8% |
| 1-0 | 15.2% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever stats
Ferro Carril Oeste and Chaco For Ever recent form
| Ferro Carril Oeste |
WDLWWD |
| Chaco For Ever |
LWDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Chaco For Ever season so far
Ferro Carril Oeste record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chaco For Ever record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Chaco For Ever | Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.6%, draw 25.1%, away 12.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 3.62 | 7.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.50 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 3.70 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 3.65 | 6.90 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 3.75 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.49 | 3.75 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 3.62 | 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 3.83 | 7.50 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 3.28 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.60 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .