Colegiales
vs
Atletico DE Rafaela
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colegiales
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.61.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela
| Probability | Colegiales | Draw | Atletico DE Rafaela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.6% | 19.8% | 8.5% |
| Market | 52.9% | 29.9% | 17.2% |
| Final | 57.6% | 27.4% | 15.1% |
| Edge | +4.7% | -2.5% | -2.2% |
Why Colegiales
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colegiales below our published probability: +4.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.3% per unit staked (our 57.6% × 1.76 − 1).
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela match preview
Colegiales will face Atletico DE Rafaela in the Primera Nacional with a strong probability of winning at 72%, while the visitors have an 8% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Colegiales, with an expected goals tally of 2.12 for Colegiales and just 0.61 for Atletico DE Rafaela. Recent form shows Colegiales with three wins in their last five matches, while Atletico DE Rafaela has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings.
In terms of goal expectations, there is a 51% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams to score has a 41% probability. The last head-to-head encounter saw Atletico DE Rafaela emerge victorious, which may influence the dynamics of this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colegiales and Atletico DE Rafaela expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Colegiales and Atletico DE Rafaela attack and defence ratings
Colegiales
Atletico DE Rafaela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colegiales | 57.6% | 1.74 | +4.7% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Colegiales win | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colegiales | 57.6% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colegiales win | 47.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 28.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | |
| 3-0 | 10.4% |
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela stats
Colegiales and Atletico DE Rafaela recent form
| Colegiales |
WDWWLW |
| Atletico DE Rafaela |
WLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colegiales and Atletico DE Rafaela season so far
Colegiales record
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico DE Rafaela record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Atletico DE Rafaela | Colegiales | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.9%, draw 29.8%, away 17.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 2.96 | 5.35 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.15 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 2.96 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.10 | 5.58 |
| SBO | 1.68 | 2.84 | 4.54 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.00 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .