Atletico DE Rafaela
vs
Quilmes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico DE Rafaela
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes
| Probability | Atletico DE Rafaela | Draw | Quilmes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 31.2% | 25.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.9% | 31.2% | 25.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atletico DE Rafaela
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.93.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes match preview
Atletico DE Rafaela will face Quilmes in the Primera Nacional on October 17, 2026. According to our model, Atletico DE Rafaela has a 43% chance of winning, while Quilmes has a 26% probability of victory, with a 31% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Atletico DE Rafaela, occurring at a rate of 13%. The expected goals for Atletico DE Rafaela stand at 1.27, compared to Quilmes' 0.93.
In terms of recent form, Atletico DE Rafaela has recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Quilmes has one win, two losses, and one draw in the same period. The probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 45%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 38%. In their last head-to-head encounter, Quilmes secured a victory against Atletico DE Rafaela.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico DE Rafaela and Quilmes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Atletico DE Rafaela and Quilmes attack and defence ratings
Atletico DE Rafaela
Quilmes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 42.9% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Quilmes | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico DE Rafaela win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.4% |
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes stats
Atletico DE Rafaela and Quilmes recent form
| Atletico DE Rafaela |
LLWLLW |
| Quilmes |
DWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico DE Rafaela and Quilmes season so far
Atletico DE Rafaela record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Quilmes record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Quilmes | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.