Midland
vs
Atletico DE Rafaela
Garuda Lions Prediction: Midland
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela
| Probability | Midland | Draw | Atletico DE Rafaela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.8% | 26.0% | 16.2% |
| Market | 51.5% | 30.7% | 17.8% |
| Final | 53.1% | 29.5% | 17.4% |
| Edge | +6.3% | -4.8% | -1.6% |
Why Midland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.80.
- The market prices Midland below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela match preview
Midland is set to face Atletico DE Rafaela in the Primera Nacional on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a strong probability of Midland winning at 56%, while Atletico DE Rafaela has a 17% chance of victory, with a 27% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Midland stand at 1.60, compared to Atletico DE Rafaela's 0.78, suggesting a favorable attacking performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Midland has recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Atletico DE Rafaela has two wins, two losses, and one draw. The most likely scoreline for this match is 1-0 in favor of Midland, with a 14% probability. Overall, both teams have a 44% chance of scoring, and there is a 42% likelihood of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Midland and Atletico DE Rafaela expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Midland and Atletico DE Rafaela attack and defence ratings
Midland
Atletico DE Rafaela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Colegiales v Tristan Suarez — match page
- Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors
- Quilmes vs Agropecuario — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
Before and after this match
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midland | 53.1% | 1.88 | +6.3% | 1.81 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midland | 53.1% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Midland win | 33.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 42.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 11.9% |
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela stats
Midland and Atletico DE Rafaela recent form
| Midland |
DLWWLL |
| Atletico DE Rafaela |
LLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Midland and Atletico DE Rafaela season so far
Midland record
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico DE Rafaela record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Atletico DE Rafaela | Midland | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.5%, draw 30.7%, away 17.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 2.95 | 5.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.00 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 2.95 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.81 | 3.10 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 2.95 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.10 | 5.23 |
| SBO | 1.76 | 2.73 | 4.30 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 2.90 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .