Defensores De Belgrano
vs
Acassuso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Defensores De Belgrano
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso
| Probability | Defensores De Belgrano | Draw | Acassuso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 32.0% | 15.2% |
| Market | 54.1% | 28.3% | 17.7% |
| Final | 53.7% | 29.2% | 17.1% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +3.7% | -2.5% |
Why Defensores De Belgrano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso match preview
Defensores De Belgrano will face Acassuso in the Primera Nacional on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 53% probability of a home win for Defensores De Belgrano, while a draw stands at 32% and Acassuso at 15%. The expected goals suggest Defensores De Belgrano is likely to score 1.27, compared to Acassuso's 0.56. The most probable scoreline is 1-0, with a 19% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Defensores De Belgrano has recorded one draw and two wins in their last five matches, while Acassuso has managed two wins but has also faced three losses. Historically, in their last encounter, Acassuso emerged victorious, with a record of 1 win and no draws or losses against Defensores De Belgrano. The overall confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Defensores De Belgrano and Acassuso expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.82
Defensores De Belgrano and Acassuso attack and defence ratings
Defensores De Belgrano
Acassuso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
- Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe
Before and after this match
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensores De Belgrano | 53.7% | 1.86 | -1.3% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensores De Belgrano | 53.7% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Acassuso | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.8% |
| No | 68.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Defensores De Belgrano win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.4% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.3% |
| 0-0 | 17.3% | |
| 2-0 | 12.9% |
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso stats
Defensores De Belgrano and Acassuso recent form
| Defensores De Belgrano |
DLWWDW |
| Acassuso |
LWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Defensores De Belgrano and Acassuso season so far
Defensores De Belgrano record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Acassuso record
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Acassuso | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.1%, draw 28.3%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 3.24 | 5.23 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.25 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.30 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 3.30 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.24 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.34 | 5.43 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.00 | 4.55 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.10 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .