Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 33
Atlanta
vs
San Martin Tucuman
1 – 0 Full time
| 33′ | R. Ayala | ||
| 59′ | G. CarabajalM. Garcia | ||
| 64′ | R. MoreiraP. Ostachuk | ||
| 69′ | A. Graneros | ||
| 70′ | A. VeliezL. Rodriguez | ||
| 71′ | F. RomeroF. Caceres | ||
| 71′ | R. SosaD. Arguello | ||
| 71′ | A. GranerosA. Cisnero | ||
| 73′ | V. Salazar | ||
| 74′ | P. Ostachuk | ||
| 78′ | B. RiveroC. Bernardi | ||
| 78′ | I. RodriguezG. Mendoza | ||
| 82′ | R. AyalaJ. P. Valdez | ||
| 82′ | S. BrinoneA. Paz | ||
| 90′ | F. Caceres |
Atlanta
45%
Draw
30%
San Martin Tucuman
25%
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman
| Probability | Atlanta | Draw | San Martin Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 25.8% | 23.0% |
| Market | 42.9% | 31.8% | 25.3% |
| Final | 44.9% | 30.3% | 24.7% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -1.5% | -0.6% |
Why Atlanta
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atlanta below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman expected goals
Atlanta
1.75
San Martin Tucuman
1.11
Total expected goals: 2.86
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman attack and defence ratings
Atlanta
Attack
1.15 +15%
Defence
1.09 +9%
San Martin Tucuman
Attack
1.44 +44%
Defence
1.32 +32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman: result vs prediction
Atlanta 1 – 0 San Martin Tucuman
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Colegiales v Tristan Suarez — match page
- Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors
- Quilmes vs Agropecuario — team news & stats
- Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
Before and after this match
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta | 44.9% | 2.23 | +2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta | 44.9% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| San Martin Tucuman | 24.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlanta win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman stats
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman recent form
| Atlanta |
WWDWWL |
| San Martin Tucuman |
WDLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman going into this match
Atlanta record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
San Martin Tucuman record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
3Atlanta wins
2Draws
2San Martin Tucuman wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | San Martin Tucuman | Atlanta | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | San Martin Tucuman | Atlanta | Primera Nacional | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Atlanta | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2022-07-23 | San Martin Tucuman | Atlanta | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2021-08-18 | San Martin Tucuman | Atlanta | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2021-04-04 | Atlanta | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2021-01-17 | Atlanta | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 31.8%, away 25.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 2.82 | 3.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 2.88 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 2.87 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 2.88 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 2.95 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.08 | 2.82 | 3.54 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.00 | 3.85 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 2.70 | 3.24 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 2.80 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.13 ▲ +0.03
X
2.88 ▲ +0.08
2
3.62 ▼ -0.15
13 snapshots recorded, from .