Atlanta
vs
San Martin Tucuman
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlanta
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman
| Probability | Atlanta | Draw | San Martin Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 25.8% | 23.1% |
| Market | 42.1% | 33.4% | 24.5% |
| Final | 44.4% | 31.5% | 24.1% |
| Edge | +9.0% | -7.6% | -1.4% |
Why Atlanta
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atlanta below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman match preview
Atlanta faces San Martin Tucuman in the Primera Nacional with a probability of 44% for a home win, while a draw stands at 32% and an away win at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability. Atlanta has shown strong recent form with four wins in their last five matches, while San Martin Tucuman's form has been mixed, with two wins and three draws in their last six games.
In terms of expected goals, Atlanta is forecasted to score 1.75, while San Martin Tucuman is projected at 1.11. Our model indicates a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. Historically, Atlanta has a slight edge in their last three encounters, winning twice compared to San Martin Tucuman's one win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman attack and defence ratings
Atlanta
San Martin Tucuman
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
- Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe
Before and after this match
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta | 44.4% | 2.25 | +9.0% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta | 44.4% |
| Draw | 31.5% | |
| San Martin Tucuman | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlanta win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman stats
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman recent form
| Atlanta |
WWDWWL |
| San Martin Tucuman |
WDLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman season so far
Atlanta record
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
San Martin Tucuman record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | San Martin Tucuman | Atlanta | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | San Martin Tucuman | Atlanta | Primera Nacional | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Atlanta | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.1%, draw 33.4%, away 24.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 2.73 | 3.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 2.75 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 2.75 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 2.73 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 2.84 | 3.81 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 2.61 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.70 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .