Colegiales
vs
Tristan Suarez
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 27% model probability
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez
| Probability | Colegiales | Draw | Tristan Suarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 41.6% | 31.7% |
| Market | 36.0% | 35.4% | 28.6% |
| Final | 33.7% | 36.9% | 29.4% |
| Edge | -9.2% | +6.2% | +3.0% |
Why the draw
- The market prices the draw below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez match preview
Colegiales will face Tristan Suarez in the Primera Nacional on October 10, 2026. The model probabilities suggest a 26% chance of a Colegiales victory, a 40% likelihood of a draw, and a 33% chance for Tristan Suarez to win. The expected goals for Colegiales stand at 0.65, while Tristan Suarez is slightly higher at 0.77. The most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, with a 25% probability.
In terms of recent form, Colegiales has recorded three wins and two losses in their last five matches, while Tristan Suarez has drawn four of their last five, with one victory. The head-to-head record shows Colegiales with one win and two draws against Tristan Suarez in their last three encounters. Both teams to score is predicted at 27%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is at 17%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colegiales and Tristan Suarez expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.34
Colegiales and Tristan Suarez attack and defence ratings
Colegiales
Tristan Suarez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors
- Quilmes vs Agropecuario — team news & stats
- Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
Before and after this match
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 36.9% | 2.71 | +6.2% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.3% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colegiales | 33.7% |
| Draw | 36.9% | |
| Tristan Suarez | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 15.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 84.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25.0% |
| No | 75.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 63.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colegiales win | 7.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 73.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 27.3% |
| 0-1 | 17.4% | |
| 1-0 | 15.3% |
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez stats
Colegiales and Tristan Suarez recent form
| Colegiales |
WWLWLW |
| Tristan Suarez |
DWDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colegiales and Tristan Suarez season so far
Colegiales record
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tristan Suarez record
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 22 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Tristan Suarez | Colegiales | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Tristan Suarez | Colegiales | Primera Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | Colegiales | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2020-03-01 | Colegiales | Tristan Suarez | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-0 |
| 2019-09-13 | Tristan Suarez | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 3-1 |
| 2019-04-28 | Colegiales | Tristan Suarez | Primera B Metropolitana | 3-1 |
| 2018-11-17 | Tristan Suarez | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-1 |
| 2018-02-25 | Tristan Suarez | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 2-0 |
| 2017-09-30 | Colegiales | Tristan Suarez | Primera B Metropolitana | 0-1 |
| 2017-06-26 | Tristan Suarez | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 35.4%, away 28.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 2.52 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 2.57 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 2.70 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 2.65 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.50 | 2.52 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 2.63 | 3.22 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 2.59 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .