Tristan Suarez
vs
Patronato
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tristan Suarez
1 – 0 Predicted score · 24% model probability
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tristan Suarez vs Patronato
| Probability | Tristan Suarez | Draw | Patronato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.2% | 37.3% | 12.6% |
| Market | 50.6% | 31.2% | 18.2% |
| Final | 50.5% | 32.7% | 16.8% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +6.1% | -5.6% |
Why Tristan Suarez
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.37.
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato match preview
Tristan Suarez enters the match against Patronato with a probability of 50% to win, while the chances of a draw are at 33% and Patronato at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Tristan Suarez, with a 24% likelihood. The expected goals for Tristan Suarez stand at 1.01, compared to Patronato's 0.38, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Tristan Suarez has recorded three draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Patronato has achieved two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record shows a balanced competition, with each team having one win and one draw in their last three encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tristan Suarez and Patronato expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.39
Tristan Suarez and Patronato attack and defence ratings
Tristan Suarez
Patronato
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
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- Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta — team news & stats
- Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu — match page
- Agropecuario v Colegiales — match page
- Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn
- San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar — team news & stats
- Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown — team news & stats
- Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre
Before and after this match
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tristan Suarez | 50.5% | 1.98 | -0.5% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83.7% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tristan Suarez | 50.5% |
| Draw | 32.7% | |
| Patronato | 16.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 83.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 20.8% |
| No | 79.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tristan Suarez win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29.5% | |
| Loss | 49.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 25.9% |
| 1-0 | 24.3% | |
| 2-0 | 12.8% |
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato stats
Tristan Suarez and Patronato recent form
| Tristan Suarez |
DDWDDD |
| Patronato |
WLWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tristan Suarez and Patronato season so far
Tristan Suarez record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 23 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Patronato record
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Patronato | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-06 | Patronato | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Tristan Suarez | Patronato | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2024-07-07 | Patronato | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2024-02-17 | Tristan Suarez | Patronato | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.5%, draw 31.1%, away 18.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 2.88 | 4.79 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.20 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 2.92 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.05 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 2.88 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.00 | 5.30 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 2.69 | 4.08 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 2.80 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .