Colon Santa Fe
vs
Almirante Brown
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colon Santa Fe
1 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown
| Probability | Colon Santa Fe | Draw | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.4% | 33.9% | 14.7% |
| Market | 54.5% | 29.1% | 16.4% |
| Final | 53.7% | 30.3% | 16.0% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +4.9% | -1.7% |
Why Colon Santa Fe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.16 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown match preview
Colon Santa Fe enters the match against Almirante Brown with a 52% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 32% and Almirante Brown at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 19% likelihood. Colon Santa Fe has an expected goals figure of 1.24 compared to Almirante Brown's 0.57, indicating a significant advantage in offensive potential.
In terms of recent form, Colon Santa Fe has recorded a win, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Almirante Brown has struggled with three losses and two draws. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters shows each team with one win and one draw, suggesting a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colon Santa Fe and Almirante Brown expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.66
Colon Santa Fe and Almirante Brown attack and defence ratings
Colon Santa Fe
Almirante Brown
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes — team news & stats
- Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta — team news & stats
- Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu — match page
- Agropecuario v Colegiales — match page
- Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn
- San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar — team news & stats
- Tristan Suarez vs Patronato — team news & stats
- Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre
Before and after this match
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colon Santa Fe | 53.7% | 1.86 | -3.2% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colon Santa Fe | 53.7% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Almirante Brown | 16.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.0% |
| No | 72.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colon Santa Fe win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.1% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 21.0% |
| 0-0 | 20.2% | |
| 2-0 | 12.8% |
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown stats
Colon Santa Fe and Almirante Brown recent form
| Colon Santa Fe |
DWDWLL |
| Almirante Brown |
DLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colon Santa Fe and Almirante Brown season so far
Colon Santa Fe record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Almirante Brown record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 18 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Almirante Brown | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Colon Santa Fe | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-10 | Almirante Brown | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2024-07-07 | Almirante Brown | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-18 | Colon Santa Fe | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.1%, draw 29.0%, away 16.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.14 | 5.19 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.25 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.15 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.30 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.14 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 3.37 | 5.71 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 2.95 | 4.59 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.10 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .