Deportivo Moron
vs
Atletico Mitre
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Moron
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre
| Probability | Deportivo Moron | Draw | Atletico Mitre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.4% | 25.3% | 14.4% |
| Market | 59.2% | 27.5% | 13.3% |
| Final | 59.5% | 26.9% | 13.6% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -2.2% | +1.1% |
Why Deportivo Moron
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre match preview
Deportivo Moron is favored to win against Atletico Mitre, with a 60% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with a 14% chance. Deportivo Moron has shown a mixed recent form with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Atletico Mitre has drawn twice and lost three times in the same span.
The expected goals for Deportivo Moron stand at 1.74, significantly higher than Atletico Mitre's 0.74. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 45%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 44%. In their last three encounters, Deportivo Moron has secured two wins and one draw against Atletico Mitre, who has yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Moron and Atletico Mitre expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Deportivo Moron and Atletico Mitre attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Moron
Atletico Mitre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Los Andes vs All Boys — team news & stats
- Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy
- Ferro Carril Oeste v Racing Cordoba — match page
- Chaco For Ever v Central Norte — match page
- Club Atlético Güemes v Almagro — match page
- Godoy Cruz vs CA Estudiantes
- San Martin S.J. vs Temperley
- San Martin Tucuman v Midland — match page
Before and after this match
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Moron | 59.5% | 1.68 | +1.2% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.6% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Moron | 59.5% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Atletico Mitre | 13.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.1% |
| No | 55.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Moron win | 35.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 39.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.5% |
| 2-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre stats
Deportivo Moron and Atletico Mitre recent form
| Deportivo Moron |
LWLLWW |
| Atletico Mitre |
DWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Moron and Atletico Mitre season so far
Deportivo Moron record
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Atletico Mitre record
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Atletico Mitre | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-28 | Deportivo Moron | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-25 | Atletico Mitre | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-22 | Deportivo Moron | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-04 | Atletico Mitre | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-18 | Deportivo Moron | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2019-10-14 | Atletico Mitre | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2018-12-11 | Atletico Mitre | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2018-03-10 | Deportivo Moron | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.4%, draw 27.8%, away 13.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 3.35 | 6.86 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.25 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.10 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 3.35 | 6.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 3.55 | 7.02 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.02 | 5.51 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.25 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .