CA Estudiantes
vs
Deportivo Moron
Garuda Lions Prediction: CA Estudiantes
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
| Probability | CA Estudiantes | Draw | Deportivo Moron |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 27.8% | 24.6% |
| Market | 38.1% | 35.5% | 26.4% |
| Final | 40.5% | 33.5% | 26.0% |
| Edge | +9.5% | -7.7% | -1.8% |
Why CA Estudiantes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.06.
- The market prices CA Estudiantes below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron match preview
In the upcoming match between CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron, the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter, with CA Estudiantes holding a 39% chance of victory compared to Deportivo Moron's 28%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 33%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of CA Estudiantes, with a 10% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with CA Estudiantes recording one win in their last six matches, while Deportivo Moron has been more successful, winning four of their last six. The expected goals metrics indicate CA Estudiantes is projected to score 1.56 goals, while Deportivo Moron is expected to net 1.06. Overall, the match promises to be closely contested, reflecting the recent head-to-head history where CA Estudiantes has yet to secure a win against Deportivo Moron in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron attack and defence ratings
CA Estudiantes
Deportivo Moron
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
- Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe
Before and after this match
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA Estudiantes | 40.5% | 2.47 | +9.5% | 2.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA Estudiantes | 40.5% |
| Draw | 33.5% | |
| Deportivo Moron | 26.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA Estudiantes win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron stats
CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron recent form
| CA Estudiantes |
LWWWLD |
| Deportivo Moron |
WLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron season so far
CA Estudiantes record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Deportivo Moron record
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Deportivo Moron | CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Deportivo Moron | CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-26 | CA Estudiantes | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 35.5%, away 26.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 2.75 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 2.55 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 2.63 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.39 | 2.70 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 2.50 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 2.59 | 3.52 |
| SBO | 2.17 | 2.57 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 2.50 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .