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Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 33

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron

2 – 0 Full time

29′E. Iniguez
37′M. Bittolo
53′F. Ardiles
54′E. FrancoG. Berterame
54′M. GonzalezJ. Esquivel
68′E. AcostaM. Nunez
68′I. VeraL. Silva
70′E. IniguezE. Contreras
70′M. BittoloF. Toloza
76′F. Ardiles
79′F. QuinterosT. Squie
79′F. ArdilesF. Dure
83′F. SenaS. Camacho
84′L. Silva
85′I. M. VaqueroL. Cardozo
87′M. Nunez
88′M. Nunez
89′F. Fagundez
89′S. Camacho

Estadio Ciudad de Caseros, Buenos Aires

CA Estudiantes 36%
Draw 34%
Deportivo Moron 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCA EstudiantesDrawDeportivo Moron
Model47.7%27.8%24.5%
Market31.9%35.5%32.6%
Final35.9%33.6%30.6%
Edge+4.0%-1.9%-2.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why CA Estudiantes

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.06.
  • The market prices CA Estudiantes below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CA Estudiantes ↓ / Deportivo Moro → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 10% 13% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron expected goals

CA Estudiantes 1.56
Deportivo Moron 1.06

Total expected goals: 2.61

CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron attack and defence ratings

CA Estudiantes

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Deportivo Moron

Attack 1.58 +58%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron: result vs prediction

CA Estudiantes 2 – 0 Deportivo Moron

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CA Estudiantes 35.9% 2.79 +4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.5% 1.94 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.7% 1.90 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 69.4% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.3% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CA Estudiantes35.9%
Draw33.6%
Deportivo Moron30.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%
Both teams to scoreYes52.7%
No47.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.4%
12 (either side)66.4%
X2 (draw or away)64.1%
Handicap -1CA Estudiantes win25.1%
Push (exactly one goal)22.5%
Loss52.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
1-010.2%
2-19.4%

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron stats

CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron recent form

newest first
CA Estudiantes LWWWLD
Deportivo Moron WLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron going into this match

league record before kick-off

CA Estudiantes record

  • They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Deportivo Moron record

  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3CA Estudiantes wins 2Draws 5Deportivo Moron wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-24Deportivo MoronCA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional2-0
2025-09-01Deportivo MoronCA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional1-1
2025-04-26CA EstudiantesDeportivo MoronPrimera Nacional0-1
2022-04-03Deportivo MoronCA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional0-1
2020-12-29Deportivo MoronCA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional2-1
2020-03-07Deportivo MoronCA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional1-0
2019-09-14CA EstudiantesDeportivo MoronPrimera Nacional1-0
2017-03-17Deportivo MoronCA EstudiantesPrimera B Metropolitana2-0
2016-09-03CA EstudiantesDeportivo MoronPrimera B Metropolitana2-1
2015-07-18Deportivo MoronCA EstudiantesPrimera B Metropolitana0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.9%, draw 35.5%, away 32.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.78 2.47 2.83
Bet365 2.88 2.75 2.75
BetVictor 2.90 2.70 2.80
Betano 2.87 2.52 3.00
Betfair 2.70 2.63 2.80
Dafabet 2.95 2.70 2.80
Marathonbet 2.78 2.47 2.83
Pinnacle 3.03 2.59 3.00
SBO 2.39 2.58 2.89
William Hill 3.00 2.50 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▲ +0.35
X 2.58 —
2 2.81 ▼ -0.39

14 snapshots recorded, from .