Almagro
vs
Chacarita Juniors
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almagro
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors
| Probability | Almagro | Draw | Chacarita Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.4% | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Market | 38.0% | 32.6% | 29.4% |
| Final | 39.1% | 32.6% | 28.2% |
| Edge | +4.4% | +0.3% | -4.7% |
Why Almagro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.83.
- The market prices Almagro below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors match preview
Almagro faces Chacarita Juniors in the Primera Nacional with a kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model assigns Almagro a 44% chance of winning, while Chacarita Juniors has a 23% probability of victory, and a draw stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Almagro, with a probability of 15%. Almagro's expected goals are 1.22, compared to Chacarita Juniors' 0.81.
In terms of recent form, Almagro has recorded two losses, one draw, one win, and two draws in their last six matches. Conversely, Chacarita Juniors has struggled significantly, losing five of their last six games, with only one win. The head-to-head record shows Chacarita Juniors with one victory against Almagro in their last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almagro and Chacarita Juniors expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Almagro and Chacarita Juniors attack and defence ratings
Almagro
Chacarita Juniors
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Quilmes vs Agropecuario — team news & stats
- Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
Before and after this match
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almagro | 39.1% | 2.56 | +4.4% | 2.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almagro | 39.1% |
| Draw | 32.6% | |
| Chacarita Juniors | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.2% |
| No | 59.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almagro win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 57.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.8% |
| 1-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors stats
Almagro and Chacarita Juniors recent form
| Almagro |
WLLDLW |
| Chacarita Juniors |
WLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almagro and Chacarita Juniors season so far
Almagro record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Chacarita Juniors record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 32 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Chacarita Juniors | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-02 | Almagro | Chacarita Juniors | Primera Nacional | 1-3 |
| 2021-01-12 | Almagro | Chacarita Juniors | Primera Nacional | 0-2 |
| 2020-03-17 | Chacarita Juniors | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2019-09-21 | Almagro | Chacarita Juniors | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2018-08-28 | Almagro | Chacarita Juniors | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2017-06-03 | Chacarita Juniors | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2016-11-08 | Almagro | Chacarita Juniors | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2014-05-03 | Almagro | Chacarita Juniors | Primera B Metropolitana | 2-1 |
| 2013-11-08 | Chacarita Juniors | Almagro | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.0%, draw 32.6%, away 29.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 2.73 | 3.12 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 2.88 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 2.80 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 2.73 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 2.83 | 3.19 |
| SBO | 2.29 | 2.66 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.70 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .