Quilmes
vs
Agropecuario
Garuda Lions Prediction: Quilmes
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
Quilmes vs Agropecuario overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Quilmes vs Agropecuario
| Probability | Quilmes | Draw | Agropecuario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 35.4% | 19.0% |
| Market | 52.1% | 28.3% | 19.5% |
| Final | 50.5% | 30.1% | 19.4% |
| Edge | -6.5% | +7.1% | -0.6% |
Why Quilmes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.59.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Quilmes vs Agropecuario match preview
Quilmes faces Agropecuario in the Primera Nacional on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 48% probability of a Quilmes victory, while a draw stands at 33% and Agropecuario at 19%. The expected goals suggest Quilmes will score 1.22 and Agropecuario 0.65, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0, occurring at an 18% probability.
In terms of recent form, Quilmes has recorded a draw, followed by a win, two losses, and another win, while Agropecuario has experienced a loss, win, loss, win, and draw in their last five matches. The head-to-head results show that in their last encounter, there was one draw, with no wins for either side. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Quilmes and Agropecuario expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.66
Quilmes and Agropecuario attack and defence ratings
Quilmes
Agropecuario
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors
- Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
Before and after this match
Quilmes vs Agropecuario markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Quilmes | 50.5% | 1.98 | -6.5% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Quilmes | 50.5% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Agropecuario | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.6% |
| No | 69.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Quilmes win | 19.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.1% |
| 1-0 | 19.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.2% |
Quilmes vs Agropecuario stats
Quilmes and Agropecuario recent form
| Quilmes |
DWLWLL |
| Agropecuario |
DLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Quilmes and Agropecuario season so far
Quilmes record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Agropecuario record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
Quilmes vs Agropecuario head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Agropecuario | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-20 | Quilmes | Agropecuario | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-29 | Agropecuario | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2022-03-23 | Quilmes | Agropecuario | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2021-08-28 | Agropecuario | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2021-04-19 | Quilmes | Agropecuario | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2021-01-18 | Agropecuario | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2018-10-30 | Quilmes | Agropecuario | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2018-02-06 | Agropecuario | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Quilmes vs Agropecuario odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.1%, draw 28.3%, away 19.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.22 | 4.67 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.20 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 3.35 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.22 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.77 | 3.29 | 4.96 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 2.97 | 4.08 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.10 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .