Almirante Brown
vs
San Miguel
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almirante Brown
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
| Probability | Almirante Brown | Draw | San Miguel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.7% | 26.7% | 11.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.7% | 26.7% | 11.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Almirante Brown
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel match preview
Almirante Brown is set to face San Miguel in the Primera Nacional, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of victory for Almirante Brown, assigning them a 62% chance to win, while San Miguel holds only a 12% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Almirante Brown, with an 18% chance of occurring.
Both teams are currently struggling for form, with Almirante Brown recording three losses and two draws in their last five matches, while San Miguel has lost four of their last five games. Expected goals suggest Almirante Brown will generate 1.58, compared to San Miguel's 0.55, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almirante Brown and San Miguel expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Almirante Brown and San Miguel attack and defence ratings
Almirante Brown
San Miguel
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe
Before and after this match
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almirante Brown | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.3% | 2.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almirante Brown | 61.7% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| San Miguel | 11.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.6% |
| No | 65.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almirante Brown win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.2% | |
| Loss | 38.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.8% |
| 2-0 | 14.9% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel stats
Almirante Brown and San Miguel recent form
| Almirante Brown |
LLLDDW |
| San Miguel |
LLDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almirante Brown and San Miguel season so far
Almirante Brown record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 18 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Miguel record
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | San Miguel | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.