Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 32
San Telmo
vs
Almirante Brown
3 – 2 Full time
| 10′ | E. Britez | ||
| 11′ | M. Batallini | ||
| 36′ | J. Motroni | ||
| 39′ | M. Zanotti | ||
| 46′ | M. BatalliniR. Gamarra | ||
| 46′ | J. MotroniJ. Porto | ||
| 52′ | J. Porto | ||
| 62′ | L. Jara | ||
| 63′ | G. FloresJ. Lopez | ||
| 63′ | M. LeviG. Moreyra | ||
| 69′ | M. Gonzalez | ||
| 72′ | M. GonzalezR. Dinocco | ||
| 74′ | San Telmo | ||
| 74′ | M. Abreliano | ||
| 82′ | L. PascualE. Martinez | ||
| 84′ | M. ZanottiT. Zarate | ||
| 84′ | L. JaraS. Gauna | ||
| 84′ | R. UriburuG. Paredes | ||
| 90′ | N. MolinaC. Nunez |
San Telmo
33%
Draw
35%
Almirante Brown
31%
San Telmo vs Almirante Brown overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Telmo vs Almirante Brown
| Probability | San Telmo | Draw | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.4% | 40.8% | 27.8% |
| Market | 34.1% | 33.6% | 32.2% |
| Final | 33.4% | 35.4% | 31.1% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +7.2% | -4.4% |
Why the draw
- The market prices the draw below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
74%
2+ goals
42%
3+ goals
16%
No goals
26%
San Telmo and Almirante Brown expected goals
San Telmo
0.73
Almirante Brown
0.67
Total expected goals: 1.39
San Telmo and Almirante Brown attack and defence ratings
San Telmo
Attack
0.95 -5%
Defence
1.13 +13%
Almirante Brown
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
0.66 -34%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
San Telmo vs Almirante Brown: result vs prediction
San Telmo 3 – 2 Almirante Brown
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn — team news & stats
- Colon Santa Fe vs CA Estudiantes — team news & stats
- Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy
- Deportivo Moron v All Boys — match page
- Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes — team news & stats
- Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar
- San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre — team news & stats
- Agropecuario vs Midland — team news & stats
Before and after this match
San Telmo vs Almirante Brown markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 35.4% | 2.82 | +7.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Telmo | 33.4% |
| Draw | 35.4% | |
| Almirante Brown | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 83.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26.3% |
| No | 73.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Telmo win | 9.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 68.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 26.1% |
| 1-0 | 16.8% | |
| 0-1 | 15.4% |
San Telmo vs Almirante Brown stats
San Telmo and Almirante Brown recent form
| San Telmo |
WLWDLW |
| Almirante Brown |
LLDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Telmo and Almirante Brown going into this match
San Telmo record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
Almirante Brown record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 18 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Telmo vs Almirante Brown head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1San Telmo wins
4Draws
5Almirante Brown wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Almirante Brown | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Almirante Brown | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-03 | San Telmo | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | San Telmo | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-20 | Almirante Brown | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2023-06-10 | San Telmo | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-05 | Almirante Brown | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-03 | Almirante Brown | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2020-02-29 | San Telmo | Almirante Brown | Primera B Metropolitana | 0-0 |
| 2019-09-14 | Almirante Brown | San Telmo | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Telmo vs Almirante Brown odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 33.6%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.03 | 2.83 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 2.75 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 2.63 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 2.57 | 2.81 |
| Pinnacle | 2.80 | 2.75 | 3.04 |
| SBO | 2.44 | 2.65 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.71 ▼ -0.09
X
2.75 ▲ +0.06
2
2.87 ▲ +0.06
12 snapshots recorded, from .