Club Atlético Güemes
vs
Almagro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almagro
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro
| Probability | Club Atlético Güemes | Draw | Almagro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.1% | 31.3% | 49.7% |
| Market | 10.0% | 20.0% | 69.9% |
| Final | 12.3% | 22.9% | 64.9% |
| Edge | +9.0% | +11.2% | -20.3% |
Why Almagro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro match preview
Club Atlético Güemes faces Almagro in a Primera Nacional match on October 18, 2026. The probabilities from our model indicate that Almagro is favored to win at 50%, while Güemes has a 19% chance of victory and a 31% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest a challenging match for Güemes, with a projected 0.71 goals compared to Almagro's 1.31.
Recent form highlights a tough stretch for Güemes, who have lost their last six matches, while Almagro has seen mixed results with two wins and four losses in their last six games. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 16%. Additionally, there is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Atlético Güemes and Almagro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Club Atlético Güemes and Almagro attack and defence ratings
Club Atlético Güemes
Almagro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre
- Los Andes vs All Boys — team news & stats
- Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy
- Ferro Carril Oeste v Racing Cordoba — match page
- Chaco For Ever v Central Norte — match page
- Godoy Cruz vs CA Estudiantes
- San Martin S.J. vs Temperley
- San Martin Tucuman v Midland — match page
Before and after this match
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almagro | 64.9% | 1.54 | -20.3% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Atlético Güemes | 12.3% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Almagro | 64.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.4% |
| No | 61.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almagro win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.1% |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro stats
Club Atlético Güemes and Almagro recent form
| Club Atlético Güemes |
LLLLLL |
| Almagro |
WWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Atlético Güemes and Almagro season so far
Club Atlético Güemes record
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
Almagro record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Almagro | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Almagro | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Club Atlético Güemes | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-16 | Club Atlético Güemes | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2023-06-03 | Almagro | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2022-06-19 | Club Atlético Güemes | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2021-11-01 | Almagro | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2021-07-04 | Club Atlético Güemes | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.6%, draw 23.5%, away 64.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.30 | 4.50 | 1.27 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 4.50 | 1.33 |
| BetVictor | 9.00 | 4.33 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 6.30 | 3.60 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 3.50 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 5.60 | 3.55 | 1.62 |
| Marathonbet | 9.70 | 4.50 | 1.26 |
| Pinnacle | 8.74 | 4.64 | 1.29 |
| SBO | 4.79 | 3.09 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 2.80 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .