Patronato
vs
Club Atlético Güemes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Patronato
2 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
| Probability | Patronato | Draw | Club Atlético Güemes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.0% | 18.7% | 5.2% |
| Market | 61.0% | 25.4% | 13.5% |
| Final | 64.8% | 23.8% | 11.5% |
| Edge | +15.0% | -6.7% | -8.3% |
Why Patronato
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.39.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Patronato below the model: +15.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes match preview
Patronato enters this match against Club Atlético Güemes with a strong probability of winning at 76%, while Güemes stands at just 5%. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Patronato, with a projection of 2.04 compared to Güemes' 0.39. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring with an 18% probability, indicating a favorable outcome for the home side.
Recent form shows Patronato with mixed results, recording one win and three draws in their last six matches. In contrast, Club Atlético Güemes has struggled significantly, suffering five consecutive losses followed by a draw. Historically, the last three encounters have seen Patronato win none, with two draws and one win for Güemes, highlighting a competitive edge in their past meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Patronato and Club Atlético Güemes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Patronato and Club Atlético Güemes attack and defence ratings
Patronato
Club Atlético Güemes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe
Before and after this match
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patronato | 64.8% | 1.54 | +15.0% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Patronato win | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patronato | 64.8% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Club Atlético Güemes | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.6% |
| No | 71.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Patronato win | 50.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 24.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 18.4% |
| 1-0 | 17.3% | |
| 3-0 | 12.5% |
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes stats
Patronato and Club Atlético Güemes recent form
| Patronato |
LWDDDL |
| Club Atlético Güemes |
LLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Patronato and Club Atlético Güemes season so far
Patronato record
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Atlético Güemes record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Club Atlético Güemes | Patronato | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Patronato | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-15 | Club Atlético Güemes | Patronato | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 25.4%, away 13.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 3.44 | 7.14 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 3.60 | 6.70 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 3.70 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 3.44 | 6.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 3.69 | 6.76 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 3.24 | 5.61 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.40 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .