Almagro
vs
Tristan Suarez
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tristan Suarez
0 – 1 Predicted score · 21% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.52.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tristan Suarez is the favourite, not a value bet.
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almagro vs Tristan Suarez
| Probability | Almagro | Draw | Tristan Suarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.1% | 37.7% | 44.2% |
| Market | 15.0% | 29.7% | 55.3% |
| Final | 15.8% | 31.7% | 52.6% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +2.0% | -2.8% |
Why Tristan Suarez
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.52.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (our 52.6% × 1.80 − 1).
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez match preview
In the upcoming match between Almagro and Tristan Suarez, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Tristan Suarez holding a slight edge at 42%, compared to Almagro's 19% and a 39% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline suggested by the model is 0-1, with a 21% probability, reflecting both teams' recent performances. Almagro has struggled, recording two wins and four matches without a victory in their last six games, while Tristan Suarez has shown more resilience with three wins and three draws.
The expected goals further highlight the challenges for Almagro, projected at 0.52, while Tristan Suarez is expected to score 0.90. Additionally, the likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at just 17%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 25%. The recent head-to-head results favor Tristan Suarez, who has won two of the last three encounters against Almagro.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almagro and Tristan Suarez expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.49
Almagro and Tristan Suarez attack and defence ratings
Almagro
Tristan Suarez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever
- Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo
- Colegiales v Atletico DE Rafaela — match page
- Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe — team news & stats
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page
- Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron
- Patronato vs Agropecuario
Before and after this match
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tristan Suarez | 52.6% | 1.90 | -2.8% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almagro | 15.8% |
| Draw | 31.7% | |
| Tristan Suarez | 52.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 81.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26.3% |
| No | 73.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tristan Suarez win | 17.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.7% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.7% |
| 0-1 | 20.7% | |
| 1-1 | 12.5% |
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez stats
Almagro and Tristan Suarez recent form
| Almagro |
LWWLLD |
| Tristan Suarez |
WDDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almagro and Tristan Suarez season so far
Almagro record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Tristan Suarez record
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 23 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Tristan Suarez | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Almagro | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-15 | Tristan Suarez | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.2%, draw 29.7%, away 55.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.34 | 3.02 | 1.62 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 3.20 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 3.13 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 6.50 | 3.15 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 3.10 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 3.15 | 1.71 |
| Marathonbet | 6.15 | 3.02 | 1.60 |
| Pinnacle | 6.19 | 3.09 | 1.70 |
| SBO | 5.03 | 2.84 | 1.61 |
| William Hill | 5.80 | 2.80 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .