Garuda Lions
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Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 35

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron

1 – 0 Full time

9′M. Santiago
29′S. Kubiszyn
37′G. Alegre Rojas
46′M. ZanottiE. Martinez
46′E. ContrerasM. Levato
54′B. Salvareschi
62′F. FloresE. Iniguez
68′E. Lazza
73′M. BittoloM. Benitez
81′L. PascualS. Villalba
81′M. AbrelianoR. Gonzalez
82′M. BurruchagaJ. Esquivel
82′G. BerterameE. Franco
88′M. SantiagoJ. Velazquez
88′S. GaunaL. Jara
90′R. Gonzalez
90′L. Jara

Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, Isidro Casanova

Almirante Brown 37%
Draw 32%
Deportivo Moron 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlmirante BrownDrawDeportivo Moron
Model51.0%27.0%22.0%
Market32.9%34.2%32.9%
Final37.4%32.4%30.2%
Edge+4.5%-1.8%-2.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Almirante Brown

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.00.
  • The market prices Almirante Brown below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Almirante Brow ↓ / Deportivo Moro → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron expected goals

Almirante Brown 1.63
Deportivo Moron 1.00

Total expected goals: 2.63

Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron attack and defence ratings

Almirante Brown

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Deportivo Moron

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron: result vs prediction

Almirante Brown 1 – 0 Deportivo Moron

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 35 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Almirante Brown 37.4% 2.67 +4.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.0% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.0% 1.92 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 69.8% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.0% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Almirante Brown37.4%
Draw32.4%
Deportivo Moron30.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%
Both teams to scoreYes52.0%
No48.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.8%
12 (either side)67.6%
X2 (draw or away)62.6%
Handicap -1Almirante Brown win27.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss49.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
1-010.6%
2-19.6%

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron stats

Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron recent form

newest first
Almirante Brown DDLLLD
Deportivo Moron LLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron going into this match

league record before kick-off

Almirante Brown record

  • They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 18 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Moron record

  • They have won 17 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Almirante Brown wins 6Draws 3Deportivo Moron wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-07Deportivo MoronAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional1-0
2025-06-14Deportivo MoronAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional2-0
2025-02-09Almirante BrownDeportivo MoronPrimera Nacional1-1
2024-08-25Deportivo MoronAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional0-1
2024-04-06Almirante BrownDeportivo MoronPrimera Nacional1-1
2023-08-27Almirante BrownDeportivo MoronPrimera Nacional0-1
2023-04-15Deportivo MoronAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional2-2
2022-06-18Almirante BrownDeportivo MoronPrimera Nacional1-1
2017-06-21Deportivo MoronAlmirante BrownPrimera B Metropolitana0-0
2016-12-06Almirante BrownDeportivo MoronPrimera B Metropolitana1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 34.6%, away 32.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.68 2.58 2.80
Bet365 2.80 2.80 2.70
BetVictor 2.88 2.75 2.75
Betano 2.82 2.72 2.80
Betfair 2.45 2.63 3.20
Dafabet 2.80 2.75 2.85
Marathonbet 2.68 2.58 2.80
Pinnacle 2.91 2.69 2.99
SBO 2.32 2.54 2.88
William Hill 2.88 2.50 2.88

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.31
X 2.69 ▲ +0.02
2 2.80 ▼ -0.40

13 snapshots recorded, from .