Almirante Brown
vs
Deportivo Moron
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almirante Brown
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.00.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron
| Probability | Almirante Brown | Draw | Deportivo Moron |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 27.0% | 21.9% |
| Market | 37.2% | 34.6% | 28.2% |
| Final | 40.7% | 32.7% | 26.6% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
Why Almirante Brown
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.00.
- The market prices Almirante Brown below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.53 − 1).
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron match preview
Almirante Brown faces Deportivo Moron in a Primera Nacional clash, with the model favoring Almirante Brown at 51% to win, while a draw stands at 27% and Deportivo Moron at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an 11% probability. Expected goals suggest Almirante Brown will score around 1.64, compared to Deportivo Moron's 1.00.
In terms of recent form, Almirante Brown has recorded two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Deportivo Moron shows a mixed record with two wins and four losses. The head-to-head statistics indicate that Almirante Brown has not won against Deportivo Moron in their last three encounters, with one draw and two losses. Both teams have a 52% chance of scoring, and there is a 49% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron attack and defence ratings
Almirante Brown
Deportivo Moron
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page
- Patronato vs Agropecuario
- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page
- Racing Cordoba v All Boys — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats
- Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes
Before and after this match
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almirante Brown | 40.7% | 2.46 | +3.5% | 2.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almirante Brown | 40.7% |
| Draw | 32.7% | |
| Deportivo Moron | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almirante Brown win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron stats
Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron recent form
| Almirante Brown |
DDLLLD |
| Deportivo Moron |
LLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almirante Brown and Deportivo Moron season so far
Almirante Brown record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 18 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Moron record
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Deportivo Moron | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Deportivo Moron | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Almirante Brown | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.2%, draw 34.7%, away 28.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.44 | 2.57 | 3.26 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 2.70 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 2.63 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.48 | 2.70 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.42 | 2.57 | 3.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 2.66 | 3.40 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 2.54 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .