Deportivo Maipu
vs
Club Atlético Güemes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Maipu
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.42.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Maipu is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes
| Probability | Deportivo Maipu | Draw | Club Atlético Güemes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.0% | 22.8% | 7.2% |
| Market | 75.5% | 16.8% | 7.7% |
| Final | 74.1% | 18.3% | 7.6% |
| Edge | -1.4% | +1.5% | -0.1% |
Why Deportivo Maipu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 74.1% × 1.23 − 1).
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes match preview
Deportivo Maipu enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 70%, while Club Atlético Güemes has a mere 7% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.77 for Deportivo Maipu compared to just 0.42 for Club Atlético Güemes. Recent form shows Deportivo Maipu with a record of L-D-W-W-D-D, whereas Club Atlético Güemes has struggled significantly, losing their last six matches.
In their last three encounters, Deportivo Maipu has yet to secure a win, recording two draws and one loss against Club Atlético Güemes, who has one victory in this period. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 37%, and both teams to score sits at 29%, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Maipu and Club Atlético Güemes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Deportivo Maipu and Club Atlético Güemes attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Maipu
Club Atlético Güemes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page
- Patronato vs Agropecuario
- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page
- Racing Cordoba v All Boys — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats
- Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maipu | 74.1% | 1.35 | -1.4% | 1.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maipu win | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maipu | 74.1% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| Club Atlético Güemes | 7.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.1% |
| No | 70.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 25.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maipu win | 42.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 30.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.1% |
| 2-0 | 17.6% | |
| 0-0 | 12.1% |
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes stats
Deportivo Maipu and Club Atlético Güemes recent form
| Deportivo Maipu |
LDWWDD |
| Club Atlético Güemes |
WLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Maipu and Club Atlético Güemes season so far
Deportivo Maipu record
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Club Atlético Güemes record
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Club Atlético Güemes | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Deportivo Maipu | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-23 | Club Atlético Güemes | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.1%, draw 17.3%, away 7.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.19 | 5.30 | 13.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.75 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.23 | 4.80 | 10.75 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.23 | 5.80 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.18 | 5.30 | 12.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.22 | 5.67 | 11.48 |
| SBO | 1.19 | 4.76 | 9.06 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 5.00 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .