San Telmo
vs
Defensores De Belgrano
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
1 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano
| Probability | San Telmo | Draw | Defensores De Belgrano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.4% | 28.9% | 20.7% |
| Market | 28.0% | 41.6% | 30.3% |
| Final | 33.6% | 38.4% | 27.9% |
| Edge | +22.4% | -12.8% | -9.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano match preview
San Telmo faces Defensores De Belgrano in the Primera Nacional with a predicted scoreline of 1-1, which has a likelihood of 13%. San Telmo's expected goals stand at 1.48, while Defensores De Belgrano has an expected goal figure of 0.86. The probabilities indicate a 35% chance for a San Telmo win, a 37% chance for a draw, and a 28% chance for a Defensores De Belgrano victory.
In terms of recent form, San Telmo has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Defensores De Belgrano also shows inconsistency, having two wins, two draws, and a loss in their recent outings. Historically, in their last ten encounters, San Telmo has secured 2 wins, while Defensores De Belgrano has won 4 times, with 4 matches ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Telmo and Defensores De Belgrano expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
San Telmo and Defensores De Belgrano attack and defence ratings
San Telmo
Defensores De Belgrano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Club Atlético Güemes v Almagro — match page
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Before and after this match
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 38.4% | 2.60 | -12.8% | 2.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Telmo | 33.6% |
| Draw | 38.4% | |
| Defensores De Belgrano | 27.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 61.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Telmo win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano stats
San Telmo and Defensores De Belgrano recent form
| San Telmo |
LWWLWD |
| Defensores De Belgrano |
LDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Telmo and Defensores De Belgrano season so far
San Telmo record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
Defensores De Belgrano record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Defensores De Belgrano | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Defensores De Belgrano | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-23 | San Telmo | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional | 0-3 |
| 2024-08-18 | San Telmo | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-01 | Defensores De Belgrano | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2023-06-18 | Defensores De Belgrano | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-11 | San Telmo | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2022-08-14 | Defensores De Belgrano | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2021-09-19 | San Telmo | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2021-05-10 | Defensores De Belgrano | San Telmo | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 41.6%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 2.14 | 2.96 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 2.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 2.63 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 1.95 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 2.10 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 2.30 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.20 | 2.14 | 2.96 |
| Pinnacle | 3.07 | 2.17 | 3.03 |
| SBO | 2.91 | 2.30 | 2.69 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .