Midland
vs
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Midland
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Midland is the favourite, not a value bet.
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
| Probability | Midland | Draw | Gimnasia Y Tiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 28.0% | 25.2% |
| Market | 47.1% | 31.8% | 21.1% |
| Final | 47.0% | 30.8% | 22.1% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.9% | +1.0% |
Why Midland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 1.98 − 1).
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro match preview
Midland faces Gimnasia Y Tiro in a Primera Nacional matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. According to our model, Midland has a 47% probability of winning, while Gimnasia Y Tiro stands at 25%, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Midland, with an expected goals tally of 1.53 for Midland and 1.06 for Gimnasia Y Tiro.
Recent form shows Midland with two wins in their last five matches, while Gimnasia Y Tiro has recorded two wins in the same span. Both teams have a 53% chance of scoring, and there is a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty in the outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Midland and Gimnasia Y Tiro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Midland and Gimnasia Y Tiro attack and defence ratings
Midland
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page
- Patronato vs Agropecuario
- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page
- Racing Cordoba v All Boys — match page
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats
- Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes
Before and after this match
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midland | 47.0% | 2.13 | -0.1% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midland | 47.0% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% |
| No | 47.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Midland win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro stats
Midland and Gimnasia Y Tiro recent form
| Midland |
LWDLWW |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro |
WDLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Midland and Gimnasia Y Tiro season so far
Midland record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia Y Tiro record
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Midland | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 31.8%, away 21.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 2.82 | 4.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 2.90 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 2.90 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 2.88 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 2.95 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 2.82 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.05 | 4.38 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 2.65 | 3.83 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 2.88 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .