Sturm Graz
vs
Lask Linz
2 – 1 Full time
| 13′ | Jurgen Heil | ||
| 34′ | Gizo Mamageishvili | ||
| 45′ | Krystof Danek | ||
| 50′ | Seedy JattaOumar Diakité | ||
| 59′ | Oumar Diakité | ||
| 60′ | Christoph LangSasa Kalajdzic | ||
| 60′ | Krystof DanekRobert Ljubicic | ||
| 61′ | Gizo MamageishviliOtar Kiteishvili | ||
| 61′ | Simon SeidlFilip Rozga Kucharczyk | ||
| 76′ | Melayro Bogarde | ||
| 77′ | Melayro BogardeAlessandro Schöpf | ||
| 77′ | Jon Gorenc StankovićLuca Weinhandl | ||
| 82′ | Kasper JorgensenFlorian Flecker | ||
| 85′ | Otar Kiteishvili | ||
| 85′ | Filip Rozga Kucharczyk | ||
| 85′ | Sascha Horvath |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 26 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 35 | Possession % | 65 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 167 | Accurate passes | 383 |
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
| Probability | Sturm Graz | Draw | Lask Linz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.3% | 23.9% | 51.9% |
| Market | 28.8% | 24.3% | 47.0% |
| Final | 27.6% | 24.2% | 48.2% |
| Edge | -4.5% | -0.4% | +4.9% |
Why Lask Linz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lask Linz below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sturm Graz and Lask Linz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Sturm Graz and Lask Linz attack and defence ratings
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz: result vs prediction
Sturm Graz 2 – 1 Lask Linz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lask Linz | 48.2% | 2.07 | +4.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 27.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Lask Linz | 48.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lask Linz win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz stats
Sturm Graz and Lask Linz recent form
| Sturm Graz |
WLDWLW |
| Lask Linz |
LWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sturm Graz and Lask Linz going into this match
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Lask Linz record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Sturm Graz | Lask Linz | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Lask Linz | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Sturm Graz | Lask Linz | Austria Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-01 | Lask Linz | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | Sturm Graz | Lask Linz | Bundesliga | 4-2 |
| 2024-10-27 | Lask Linz | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-12 | Lask Linz | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | Sturm Graz | Lask Linz | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Lask Linz | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2023-08-05 | Sturm Graz | Lask Linz | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.9%, draw 24.3%, away 46.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.20 |
| 1xBet | 3.22 | 3.85 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.85 | 1.93 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.22 | 3.85 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 3.38 | 4.25 | 1.98 |
| SBO | 2.89 | 3.42 | 2.04 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .