Siroki Brijeg
vs
Čelik
Garuda Lions Prediction: Siroki Brijeg
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik
| Probability | Siroki Brijeg | Draw | Čelik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 28.6% | 23.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.2% | 28.6% | 23.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Siroki Brijeg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.97.
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik match preview
Siroki Brijeg faces Čelik in an upcoming Premijer Liga match, with our model assigning a 48% probability of a home win for Siroki Brijeg, while a draw stands at 29% and Čelik at 23%. The expected goals suggest Siroki Brijeg could score around 1.50, compared to Čelik's 0.97. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Siroki Brijeg has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Čelik has achieved two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 49%, with over 2.5 goals expected at 45%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Siroki Brijeg and Čelik expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Siroki Brijeg and Čelik attack and defence ratings
Siroki Brijeg
Čelik
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Siroki Brijeg | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Siroki Brijeg | 48.2% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Čelik | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Siroki Brijeg win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.7% |
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik stats
Siroki Brijeg and Čelik recent form
| Siroki Brijeg |
WDLDLL |
| Čelik |
DDWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Siroki Brijeg and Čelik season so far
Siroki Brijeg record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Čelik record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Čelik | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.