Horoya
vs
Al Merreikh
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 23% model probability
Horoya vs Al Merreikh overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Horoya vs Al Merreikh
| Probability | Horoya | Draw | Al Merreikh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 38.7% | 24.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.0% | 38.7% | 24.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Horoya vs Al Merreikh match preview
Horoya faces Al Merreikh in the CAF Champions League on October 18, 2026. The model indicates a competitive match, with Horoya holding a 37% probability of winning, while a draw is slightly favored at 39%. Al Merreikh has a 24% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, with a 23% probability, reflecting the anticipated defensive strategies of both teams.
In terms of expected goals, Horoya is projected to score 0.86, while Al Merreikh is expected to net 0.65. Recent form shows Horoya with a record of W-L-L-D-W-L and Al Merreikh at W-W-D-L. The probabilities are derived solely from the model, which has a confidence grade of C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Horoya and Al Merreikh expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.51
Horoya and Al Merreikh attack and defence ratings
Horoya
Al Merreikh
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Horoya vs Al Merreikh markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Horoya | 37.0% |
| Draw | 38.7% | |
| Al Merreikh | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 80.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.8% |
| No | 71.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 61.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Horoya win | 13.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.3% |
| 1-0 | 17.8% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Horoya vs Al Merreikh stats
Horoya and Al Merreikh recent form
| Horoya |
WLLDWL |
| Al Merreikh |
WWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.