Garuda Lions
Today
Chile Primera División · Full time ·Matchday 21

Colo Colo vs A. Italiano

5 – 1 Full time

15′J. Correa
26′Joaquín Sosa
31′L. Pastran
34′G. Chiaverano
52′J. SosaI. Roman
57′M. SandovalM. Collao
57′D. CoelhoF. Troyansky
57′A. UribeD. Pizarro
61′L. Hernandez
73′L. PastranT. Alarcon
73′C. PinaresM. Fuentes
78′J. VillagraE. Wiemberg
79′J. Correa
82′L. Hernandez

Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Santiago de ChileReferee: Franco Esteban Jimenez Lazo, Chile

Colo Colo 66%
Draw 20%
A. Italiano 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 5
61 Possession % 39
4 Corners 6
11 Fouls 5
5 Offsides 1
2 Saves 2
455 Accurate passes 256

Colo Colo vs A. Italiano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Colo Colo vs A. Italiano

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityColo ColoDrawA. Italiano
Model70.2%18.7%11.2%
Market65.2%20.8%14.0%
Final66.5%20.3%13.3%
Edge+5.0%-2.1%-2.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Colo Colo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Colo Colo below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Colo Colo ↓ / A. Italiano → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 9% 2 11% 10% 3 9% 8% 4+ 9% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Colo Colo and A. Italiano expected goals

Colo Colo 2.39
A. Italiano 0.88

Total expected goals: 3.27

Colo Colo and A. Italiano attack and defence ratings

Colo Colo

Attack 1.68 +68%
Defence 0.94 -6%

A. Italiano

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Colo Colo vs A. Italiano: result vs prediction

Colo Colo 5 – 1 A. Italiano

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Before and after this match

Colo Colo vs A. Italiano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Colo Colo 66.5% 1.50 +5.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.4% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.8% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.7% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Colo Colo win 48.4% 2.07 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Colo Colo66.5%
Draw20.3%
A. Italiano13.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.4%
Under 2.536.6%
Both teams to scoreYes53.8%
No46.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.7%
12 (either side)79.7%
X2 (draw or away)33.5%
Handicap -1Colo Colo win48.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss29.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.9%
2-19.5%
1-18.8%

Colo Colo vs A. Italiano stats

Colo Colo and A. Italiano recent form

newest first
Colo Colo WDWWWW
A. Italiano DDDWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Colo Colo and A. Italiano going into this match

league record before kick-off

Colo Colo record

  • They have won 17 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

A. Italiano record

  • They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Colo Colo vs A. Italiano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Colo Colo wins 1Draws 3A. Italiano wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-07A. ItalianoColo ColoChile Primera División0-1
2025-12-07Colo ColoA. ItalianoChile Primera División1-2
2025-06-22A. ItalianoColo ColoChile Primera División2-1
2024-10-06Colo ColoA. ItalianoPrimera División2-1
2024-05-12A. ItalianoColo ColoPrimera División1-4
2023-11-26A. ItalianoColo ColoPrimera División0-1
2023-05-10Colo ColoA. ItalianoPrimera División2-1
2022-07-16A. ItalianoColo ColoPrimera División1-2
2022-02-19Colo ColoA. ItalianoPrimera División1-1
2021-10-28A. ItalianoColo ColoPrimera División2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Colo Colo vs A. Italiano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 65.2%, draw 20.8%, away 14.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.44 4.20 6.40
1xBet 1.41 4.20 6.63
Bet365 1.36 4.50 7.00
BetVictor 1.44 4.40 7.00
Betano 1.50 4.60 7.10
Betfair 1.36 4.40 6.00
Dafabet 1.45 4.70 6.80
Marathonbet 1.42 4.50 6.55
Pinnacle 1.47 4.61 6.91
SBO 1.41 4.03 5.90
Superbet 1.42 4.45 6.30
Unibet 1.43 4.50 6.75
William Hill 1.40 4.00 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.42 ▼ -0.08
X 4.45 ▲ +0.17
2 6.63 ▲ +0.08

13 snapshots recorded, from .