Chile Primera División · 2026-08-31T22:15:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 21

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena

0 – 1 Full time

38′			Felipe Chamorro
43′			Jeisson Vargas
46′			Matías Marín
46′			Yerko LeivaCarlo Villanueva
46′			Felipe ChamorroYahir Salazar
61′			Francisco Jose PozzoMatías Campos López
61′			Ángelo HenríquezLucas Alarcón
67′			Matías PintoGonzalo Escalante
70′			Carlo Villanueva
70′			Vicente LavínKevin Méndez
80′			Joaquín SotoBrian Nicolas Ferreyra
83′			Bruno GutiérrezMatías Pérez
84′			Jeisson VargasDiego Rubio
90′			Cristián Gutiérrez
90′			Gonzalo Escalante

Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, La CaleraReferee: Cristian Garay, Chile

Union La Calera

40%

Draw

27%

D. La Serena

34%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

19	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	2
61	Possession %	39
9	Corners	2
11	Fouls	12
2	Offsides	0
1	Saves	7
345	Accurate passes	225

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Union La Calera vs D. La Serena

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Union La Calera	Draw	D. La Serena
Model	30.6%	24.9%	44.5%
Market	42.6%	27.2%	30.2%
Final	39.6%	26.6%	33.8%
Edge	-12.0%	-2.3%	+14.3%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

85%

3+ goals

63%

No goals

Union La Calera and D. La Serena expected goals

Union La Calera

1.46

D. La Serena

1.79

Total expected goals: 3.26

Union La Calera and D. La Serena attack and defence ratings

Union La Calera

Attack

0.71 -29%

Defence

1.22 +22%

D. La Serena

Attack

1.27 +27%

Defence

1.30 +30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena: result vs prediction

Union La Calera 0 – 1 D. La Serena

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Cobresal vs Palestino — team news & stats · 2026-08-28
Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina · 2026-08-29
Nublense v Concepción — match page · 2026-08-30
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile — team news & stats · 2026-08-30
Colo Colo vs A. Italiano · 2026-08-30
U. Catolica vs O'Higgins · 2026-09-01
Coquimbo Unido v Huachipato — match page · 2026-09-16

Before and after this match

Union La Calera, previous: A. Italiano – Union La Calera, 2026-08-22
Union La Calera, next: O'Higgins vs Union La Calera prediction
D. La Serena, previous: D. La Serena vs Cobresal prediction
D. La Serena, next: D. La Serena vs Nublense: odds and pick

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Union La Calera	39.6%	2.53	-12.0%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.2%	1.58	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	65.1%	1.54	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.4%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	69.4%	1.44	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Union La Calera	39.6%
	Draw	26.6%
	D. La Serena	33.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.2%
	Under 2.5	36.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	65.1%
	No	34.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	66.2%
	12 (either side)	73.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	60.4%
Handicap -1	Union La Calera win	14.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	16.1%
	Loss	69.4%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.1%
	1-2	9.1%
	2-1	7.4%

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena stats

Union La Calera and D. La Serena recent form

newest first

Union La Calera	DLLLDD
D. La Serena	DWDLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Union La Calera and D. La Serena going into this match

league record before kick-off

Union La Calera record

They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 21 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

D. La Serena record

They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Union La Calera wins 2Draws 4D. La Serena wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-06-07	D. La Serena	Union La Calera	Copa De La Liga	0-2
2026-03-28	Union La Calera	D. La Serena	Copa De La Liga	2-1
2026-03-06	D. La Serena	Union La Calera	Chile Primera División	3-0
2025-08-16	Union La Calera	D. La Serena	Chile Primera División	1-1
2025-03-16	D. La Serena	Union La Calera	Chile Primera División	1-0
2022-10-30	D. La Serena	Union La Calera	Primera División	2-1
2022-05-22	Union La Calera	D. La Serena	Primera División	1-1
2021-11-28	Union La Calera	D. La Serena	Primera División	1-2
2021-08-14	D. La Serena	Union La Calera	Primera División	1-2
2021-01-15	D. La Serena	Union La Calera	Primera División	0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.6%, draw 27.2%, away 30.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.15	3.45	3.00
1xBet	2.12	3.30	3.06
Bet365	2.20	3.20	3.10
BetVictor	2.20	3.40	3.10
Betano	2.25	3.40	3.20
Betfair	2.10	3.40	3.00
Dafabet	2.26	3.40	3.20
Marathonbet	2.17	3.44	3.06
Pinnacle	2.26	3.52	3.20
SBO	2.15	3.12	2.89
Superbet	2.22	3.30	3.05
Unibet	2.17	3.35	3.20
William Hill	2.15	3.20	2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.17 ▼ -0.07

X 3.40 ▲ +0.10

2 3.06 ▼ -0.19

15 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-23T08:10:02Z.