D. La Serena vs Cobresal Prediction — 23 Aug 2026

D. La Serena vs Cobresal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: D. La Serena vs Cobresal

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	D. La Serena	Draw	Cobresal
Model	64.8%	19.0%	16.2%
Market	54.6%	24.7%	20.7%
Final	57.1%	23.3%	19.6%
Edge	+10.3%	-5.8%	-4.5%

Confidence: Low

Why D. La Serena

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.24.
The market prices D. La Serena below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

97%

2+ goals

90%

3+ goals

73%

No goals

3%

D. La Serena and Cobresal expected goals

D. La Serena

2.54

Cobresal

1.24

Total expected goals: 3.78

D. La Serena and Cobresal attack and defence ratings

D. La Serena

Attack

1.18 +18%

Defence

1.19 +19%

Cobresal

Attack

0.91 -9%

Defence

1.36 +36%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

D. La Serena vs Cobresal: result vs prediction

D. La Serena 3 – 3 Cobresal

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 20 fixtures

Chile Primera División

A. Italiano vs Union La Calera — team news & stats · 2026-08-22
Huachipato vs Deportes Limache · 2026-08-22
U. Catolica v Nublense — match page · 2026-08-23
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido · 2026-08-23
Universidad de Chile v Colo Colo — match page · 2026-08-23
O'Higgins vs Palestino — team news & stats · 2026-08-23
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2026-08-24

Before and after this match

D. La Serena, previous: Universidad de Concepcion v D. La Serena analysis
D. La Serena, next: Union La Calera vs D. La Serena prediction
Cobresal, previous: Cobresal v Concepción analysis
Cobresal, next: Cobresal v Palestino analysis

D. La Serena vs Cobresal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	D. La Serena	57.1%	1.75	+10.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72.8%	1.37	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	66.2%	1.51	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	80.4%	1.24	—	—
Handicap -1	D. La Serena win	44.4%	2.25	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	D. La Serena	57.1%
	Draw	23.3%
	Cobresal	19.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72.8%
	Under 2.5	27.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	66.2%
	No	33.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	80.4%
	12 (either side)	76.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	42.9%
Handicap -1	D. La Serena win	44.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.5%
	Loss	35.2%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	9.1%
	1-1	7.9%
	3-1	7.7%

D. La Serena vs Cobresal stats

D. La Serena and Cobresal recent form

newest first

D. La Serena	WDLDDL
Cobresal	LLWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

D. La Serena and Cobresal going into this match

league record before kick-off

D. La Serena record

They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.

Cobresal record

They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.

D. La Serena vs Cobresal head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

1D. La Serena wins 0Draws 2Cobresal wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-02-27	Cobresal	D. La Serena	Chile Primera División	0-1
2025-07-26	D. La Serena	Cobresal	Chile Primera División	0-2
2025-02-23	Cobresal	D. La Serena	Chile Primera División	3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

D. La Serena vs Cobresal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.4%, draw 24.7%, away 21.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.73	3.75	4.10
1xBet	1.64	3.75	4.47
888Sport	1.70	3.50	4.00
Bet365	1.70	3.75	4.50
BetVictor	1.70	3.80	4.60
Betano	1.78	4.00	4.75
Betfair	1.67	3.75	4.20
Dafabet	1.73	3.90	4.60
Marathonbet	1.68	3.84	4.50
Pinnacle	1.72	4.02	4.72
SBO	1.65	3.54	4.14
Superbet	1.70	3.75	4.35
Unibet	1.78	3.60	3.90
William Hill	1.67	3.60	4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.70 ▼ -0.01

X 3.75 —

2 4.48 ▲ +0.19

3 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-22T08:43:07Z.