Chile Primera División
·
Full time
·Matchday 20
Everton de Vina
vs
Universidad de Concepcion
3 – 1 Full time
Everton de Vina
57%
Draw
24%
Universidad de Concepcion
19%
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion
| Probability | Everton de Vina | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.1% | 16.9% | 7.0% |
| Market | 50.2% | 26.5% | 23.2% |
| Final | 56.7% | 24.1% | 19.2% |
| Edge | +25.9% | -9.7% | -16.2% |
Why Everton de Vina
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Everton de Vina below the model: +25.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion expected goals
Everton de Vina
2.39
Universidad de Concepcion
0.61
Total expected goals: 3.00
Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion attack and defence ratings
Everton de Vina
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Universidad de Concepcion
Attack
0.56 -44%
Defence
1.20 +20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion: result vs prediction
Everton de Vina 3 – 1 Universidad de Concepcion
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton de Vina | 56.7% | 1.76 | +25.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Everton de Vina win | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton de Vina | 56.7% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.4% |
| No | 57.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Everton de Vina win | 53.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 23.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.2% |
| 3-0 | 11.3% | |
| 1-0 | 11.1% |
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion stats
Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion recent form
| Everton de Vina |
DWLDLW |
| Universidad de Concepcion |
LLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion going into this match
Everton de Vina record
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Universidad de Concepcion record
- They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 21 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
4Everton de Vina wins
2Draws
1Universidad de Concepcion wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Universidad de Concepcion | Everton de Vina | Chile Primera División | 0-3 |
| 2020-12-28 | Universidad de Concepcion | Everton de Vina | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2020-01-24 | Everton de Vina | Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2019-09-27 | Everton de Vina | Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2019-02-17 | Universidad de Concepcion | Everton de Vina | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2018-08-11 | Everton de Vina | Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2018-04-21 | Universidad de Concepcion | Everton de Vina | Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.3%, draw 26.5%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.02 |
| 888Sport | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.70 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.52 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.61 | 4.17 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| Superbet | 1.87 | 3.45 | 3.90 |
| Unibet | 1.68 | 3.55 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.85 ▲ +0.18
X
3.50 ▼ -0.25
2
4.00 ▼ -0.45
7 snapshots recorded, from .