Chile Primera División
·
Full time
·Matchday 21
Universidad de Concepcion
vs
Universidad de Chile
2 – 1 Full time
| 4′ | Jeison Joaquin Fuentealba Vergara | ||
| 8′ | David Retamal | ||
| 17′ | Cecilio Waterman | ||
| 40′ | Moisés González | ||
| 45′ | Agustín ArceJavier Altamirano | ||
| 45′ | Lucas Emilio Barrera HacickiTobías Reinhart | ||
| 45′ | Bianneider TamayoJuan Martin Lucero | ||
| 61′ | Charles Aránguiz | ||
| 63′ | Bryan Ogaz | ||
| 63′ | Maximiliano GuerreroIgnacio Vásquez | ||
| 68′ | Rogelio FunesYerco Oyanedel | ||
| 74′ | Osvaldo GonzálezBastian Ubal | ||
| 74′ | Antonio DiazCristopher Mesias Sepulveda | ||
| 74′ | Nicolás RamírezGonzalo Ezequiel Reyna | ||
| 79′ | Miguel BarbieriJorge Espejo | ||
| 80′ | Luis RojasPablo Parra | ||
| 90′ | Matias Zaldivia | ||
| 90′ | Pablo Parra | ||
| 90′ | Jorge Broun | ||
| 90′ | Jorge Broun |
Universidad de Concepcion
20%
Draw
26%
Universidad de Chile
54%
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 26 | Possession % | 74 |
| 0 | Corners | 15 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 111 | Accurate passes | 440 |
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile
| Probability | Universidad de Concepcion | Draw | Universidad de Chile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.9% | 25.0% | 62.2% |
| Market | 22.3% | 26.2% | 51.5% |
| Final | 20.0% | 25.9% | 54.1% |
| Edge | -9.5% | -1.2% | +10.7% |
Why Universidad de Chile
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universidad de Chile below the model: +10.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
71%
3+ goals
44%
No goals
10%
Universidad de Concepcion and Universidad de Chile expected goals
Universidad de Concepcion
0.67
Universidad de Chile
1.75
Total expected goals: 2.42
Universidad de Concepcion and Universidad de Chile attack and defence ratings
Universidad de Concepcion
Attack
0.58 -42%
Defence
1.30 +30%
Universidad de Chile
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
0.73 -27%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile: result vs prediction
Universidad de Concepcion 2 – 1 Universidad de Chile
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Chile | 54.1% | 1.85 | +10.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Concepcion | 20.0% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Universidad de Chile | 54.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.4% |
| No | 58.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Chile win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-2 | 13.6% | |
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile stats
Universidad de Concepcion and Universidad de Chile recent form
| Universidad de Concepcion |
LLLLLD |
| Universidad de Chile |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universidad de Concepcion and Universidad de Chile going into this match
Universidad de Concepcion record
- They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 21 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universidad de Chile record
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
0Universidad de Concepcion wins
1Draws
0Universidad de Chile wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Universidad de Chile | Universidad de Concepcion | Chile Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.3%, draw 26.2%, away 51.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.78 |
| 1xBet | 4.24 | 3.50 | 1.72 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.40 | 3.60 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.40 | 3.65 | 1.82 |
| Marathonbet | 4.30 | 3.65 | 1.75 |
| Pinnacle | 4.33 | 3.66 | 1.80 |
| SBO | 3.81 | 3.28 | 1.72 |
| Unibet | 4.10 | 3.55 | 1.84 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.10 ▲ +0.14
X
3.50 ▲ +0.09
2
1.78 ▼ -0.10
12 snapshots recorded, from .