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Chile Primera División · Full time ·Matchday 21

U. Catolica vs O'Higgins

3 – 2 Full time

13′Cristian Morales
16′Jimmy Martínez
26′Fernando Zampedri
38′Alan Robledo
39′Nicolás Garrido
40′Fernando Zampedri
41′Walter Bou
59′Diego CorralMatías Palavecino
59′Clemente MontesJusto Giani
67′‪Ignacio SchorThiago Vecino
68′Sebastián Arancibia
70′Arnaldo Castillo
71′Santiago Toloza
75′Santiago TolozaRodrigo Godoy
77′Alfred CanalesMartín Gómez
87′Martín Gómez
88′Sebastián ArancibiaAgustín Farías
88′Jimmy MartínezDaniel González
88′Juan LeivaMartín Maturana
88′Felipe OgazTomás Avilés

Claro Arena, SantiagoReferee: Juan Ignacio Lara Luco, Chile

U. Catolica 54%
Draw 25%
O'Higgins 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 9
43 Possession % 57
7 Corners 10
10 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
7 Saves 2
278 Accurate passes 392

U. Catolica vs O'Higgins overview

Garuda Lions analysis: U. Catolica vs O'Higgins

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityU. CatolicaDrawO'Higgins
Model59.6%24.5%15.9%
Market51.7%25.7%22.6%
Final53.7%25.4%20.9%
Edge+7.9%-1.2%-6.6%

Confidence: Low

Why U. Catolica

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.86.
  • The market prices U. Catolica below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

U. Catolica ↓ / O'Higgins → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

U. Catolica and O'Higgins expected goals

U. Catolica 1.84
O'Higgins 0.86

Total expected goals: 2.70

U. Catolica and O'Higgins attack and defence ratings

U. Catolica

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.99 -1%

O'Higgins

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

U. Catolica vs O'Higgins: result vs prediction

U. Catolica 3 – 2 O'Higgins

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Before and after this match

U. Catolica vs O'Higgins markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 U. Catolica 53.7% 1.86 +7.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score No 50.6% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.1% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.5% 2.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2U. Catolica53.7%
Draw25.4%
O'Higgins20.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%
Both teams to scoreYes49.4%
No50.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.1%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)46.3%
Handicap -1U. Catolica win35.5%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss40.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.7%
2-011.4%
1-011.4%

U. Catolica vs O'Higgins stats

U. Catolica and O'Higgins recent form

newest first
U. Catolica WLLDWL
O'Higgins LDLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

U. Catolica and O'Higgins going into this match

league record before kick-off

U. Catolica record

  • They have won 11 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

O'Higgins record

  • They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.9 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.

U. Catolica vs O'Higgins head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4U. Catolica wins 1Draws 5O'Higgins wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-07O'HigginsU. CatolicaChile Primera División1-0
2025-11-02U. CatolicaO'HigginsChile Primera División0-2
2025-05-17O'HigginsU. CatolicaChile Primera División2-0
2024-10-06O'HigginsU. CatolicaPrimera División0-2
2024-05-11U. CatolicaO'HigginsPrimera División3-2
2023-10-07O'HigginsU. CatolicaPrimera División0-3
2023-04-23U. CatolicaO'HigginsPrimera División0-1
2022-08-12U. CatolicaO'HigginsPrimera División2-2
2022-03-19O'HigginsU. CatolicaPrimera División2-1
2021-10-31O'HigginsU. CatolicaPrimera División1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

U. Catolica vs O'Higgins odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.7%, draw 25.7%, away 22.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.79 3.65 3.90
1xBet 1.72 3.60 4.12
Bet365 1.75 3.60 4.10
BetVictor 1.75 3.60 4.10
Betano 1.85 3.80 4.50
Betfair 1.73 3.60 4.00
Dafabet 1.83 3.75 4.20
Marathonbet 1.76 3.75 4.10
Pinnacle 1.81 3.83 4.31
SBO 1.82 3.30 3.65
Superbet 1.80 3.60 4.00
Unibet 1.86 3.50 4.00
William Hill 1.75 3.40 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.79 ▼ -0.30
X 3.60 ▲ +0.10
2 4.10 ▲ +0.69

15 snapshots recorded, from .