Concepción
vs
Coquimbo Unido
1 – 1 Full time
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido
| Probability | Concepción | Draw | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.5% | 30.0% | 17.5% |
| Market | 30.3% | 29.3% | 40.5% |
| Final | 35.8% | 29.4% | 34.7% |
| Edge | +22.3% | +0.7% | -23.0% |
Why Concepción
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Concepción below the model: +22.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Concepción and Coquimbo Unido expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
Concepción and Coquimbo Unido attack and defence ratings
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido: result vs prediction
Concepción 1 – 1 Coquimbo Unido
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concepción | 35.8% | 2.79 | +22.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Concepción | 35.8% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Coquimbo Unido | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.1% |
| No | 60.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Concepción win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.0% |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.2% |
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido stats
Concepción and Coquimbo Unido recent form
| Concepción |
WWWWWL |
| Coquimbo Unido |
DDDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Concepción and Coquimbo Unido going into this match
Concepción record
- They have won 9 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
Coquimbo Unido record
- They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Coquimbo Unido | Concepción | Chile Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.3%, draw 29.2%, away 40.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.24 |
| 1xBet | 3.06 | 3.05 | 2.27 |
| 888Sport | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 3.12 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.22 | 2.44 |
| SBO | 2.86 | 2.99 | 2.24 |
| Superbet | 3.05 | 3.20 | 2.27 |
| Unibet | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .