U. Catolica
vs
Nublense
1 – 2 Full time
U. Catolica vs Nublense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: U. Catolica vs Nublense
| Probability | U. Catolica | Draw | Nublense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 25.4% | 25.0% |
| Market | 55.6% | 24.9% | 19.5% |
| Final | 54.1% | 25.0% | 20.9% |
| Edge | -6.0% | +0.5% | +5.5% |
Why U. Catolica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.22.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
U. Catolica and Nublense expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
U. Catolica and Nublense attack and defence ratings
U. Catolica
Nublense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
U. Catolica vs Nublense: result vs prediction
U. Catolica 1 – 2 Nublense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
U. Catolica vs Nublense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 54.1% | 1.85 | -6.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 54.1% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Nublense | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | U. Catolica win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
U. Catolica vs Nublense stats
U. Catolica and Nublense recent form
| U. Catolica |
LDWLDW |
| Nublense |
WDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
U. Catolica and Nublense going into this match
U. Catolica record
- They have won 11 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nublense record
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
U. Catolica vs Nublense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Nublense | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-09 | U. Catolica | Nublense | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Nublense | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
U. Catolica vs Nublense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.6%, draw 24.8%, away 19.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.64 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.60 | 4.68 |
| 888Sport | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.72 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.52 | 4.46 |
| Superbet | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.65 |
| Unibet | 1.64 | 3.65 | 4.70 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .