Chile Primera División · 2026-09-06T15:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 22

D. La Serena vs Nublense

2 – 1 Full time

30′			Sebastian Valencia
41′			Ignacio Tapia
43′			F. Dinamarca
45′			Felipe Chamorro
45′			Matías PérezBruno Gutierrez
55′			Ángelo HenríquezDiego Rubio
57′			Francis Mac Allister
58′			Robinson Manuel Rivera ZúñigaDiego Céspedes
58′			Franco RamiIgnacio Jeraldino
66′			Ignacio TapiaFernando Ovelar
70′			Rafael Delgado
71′			Matías PlazaAlex Valdes
71′			Jovany CampusanoVicente Guzmán
72′			Vicente Guzmán
86′			Francis Mac AllisterSebastián Díaz
86′			F. DinamarcaMatias Pinto
88′			Matias Pinto
90′			Ignacio Jeraldino
90′			Lucas Alarcon
90′			Felipe ChamorroJoaquín Gutierrez
90′			Diego Rubio

La Portada, La SerenaReferee: Hector Jona, Chile

D. La Serena

41%

Draw

27%

Nublense

31%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

13	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
55	Possession %	45
4	Corners	5
12	Fouls	14
1	Offsides	0
2	Saves	3
295	Accurate passes	221

D. La Serena vs Nublense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: D. La Serena vs Nublense

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	D. La Serena	Draw	Nublense
Model	53.0%	23.7%	23.4%
Market	37.6%	28.3%	34.2%
Final	41.4%	27.1%	31.5%
Edge	+15.4%	-4.6%	-10.8%

Confidence: Low

Why D. La Serena

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.27.
The market prices D. La Serena below the model: +15.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

85%

3+ goals

63%

No goals

D. La Serena and Nublense expected goals

D. La Serena

1.99

Nublense

1.27

Total expected goals: 3.26

D. La Serena and Nublense attack and defence ratings

D. La Serena

Attack

1.20 +20%

Defence

1.20 +20%

Nublense

Attack

0.93 -7%

Defence

1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

D. La Serena vs Nublense: result vs prediction

D. La Serena 2 – 1 Nublense

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 22 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Concepción vs A. Italiano · 2026-09-05
Everton de Vina v U. Catolica — match page · 2026-09-05
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
O'Higgins v Union La Calera — match page · 2026-09-06
Huachipato vs Colo Colo — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2026-09-06
Deportes Limache v Cobresal — match page · 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

D. La Serena, previous: Union La Calera vs D. La Serena prediction
D. La Serena, next: D. La Serena vs Universidad de Chile prediction
Nublense, previous: Deportes Limache vs Nublense: odds and pick
Nublense, next: Nublense vs Everton de Vina prediction

D. La Serena vs Nublense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	D. La Serena	41.4%	2.42	+15.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.3%	1.58	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	63.1%	1.58	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.9%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	47.0%	2.13	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	D. La Serena	41.4%
	Draw	27.1%
	Nublense	31.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.3%
	Under 2.5	36.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	63.1%
	No	36.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	68.5%
	12 (either side)	72.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	58.6%
Handicap -1	D. La Serena win	31.6%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.3%
	Loss	47.0%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.7%
	2-1	9.6%
	2-0	7.6%

D. La Serena vs Nublense stats

D. La Serena and Nublense recent form

newest first

D. La Serena	WDWDLD
Nublense	LLWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

D. La Serena and Nublense going into this match

league record before kick-off

D. La Serena record

They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.

Nublense record

They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

D. La Serena vs Nublense head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4D. La Serena wins 2Draws 3Nublense wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-15	Nublense	D. La Serena	Chile Primera División	2-2
2025-10-18	D. La Serena	Nublense	Chile Primera División	1-1
2025-04-25	Nublense	D. La Serena	Chile Primera División	2-0
2022-07-30	D. La Serena	Nublense	Primera División	3-0
2022-03-04	Nublense	D. La Serena	Primera División	3-1
2021-10-05	Nublense	D. La Serena	Primera División	0-1
2021-05-08	D. La Serena	Nublense	Primera División	1-0
2019-08-18	Nublense	D. La Serena	Primera B	1-2
2019-04-14	D. La Serena	Nublense	Primera B	0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

D. La Serena vs Nublense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 28.2%, away 34.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.40	3.35	2.66
1xBet	2.40	3.25	2.60
Bet365	2.45	3.20	2.70
BetVictor	2.50	3.30	2.75
Betano	2.52	3.40	2.77
Betfair	2.30	3.30	2.70
Dafabet	2.55	3.40	2.75
Marathonbet	2.47	3.28	2.71
Pinnacle	2.55	3.47	2.79
SBO	2.33	3.00	2.56
Superbet	2.50	3.25	2.70
Unibet	2.48	3.20	2.80
William Hill	2.40	3.10	2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.46 ▲ +0.23

X 3.26 ▼ -0.01

2 2.71 ▼ -0.30

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-30T20:10:18Z.