Chile Primera División · 2026-09-05T00:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 22

Concepción vs A. Italiano

0 – 1 Full time

17′			César Pinares
45′			Fernando MartinezJoaquín Montecinos
45′			Nicolas FuentesAldrix Jara
45′			Federico MateosMarco Collao Ramos
56′			Jorge HenríquezFernando Romero
64′			Paolo GuajardoMario Eduardo Sandoval
68′			Mario Eduardo Sandoval
69′			Ethan EspinozaCarlos Escobar
69′			Y. RodríguezMisael Dávila
74′			Fausto Grillo
76′			Joaquín Montecinos
77′			Franco Troyansky
84′			Franco TroyanskyMarcelo Ortíz
90′			Diego CoelhoDamian Pizarro
90′			Aldrix Jara

Estadio Ester RoaReferee: P. Maza

Concepción

52%

Draw

26%

A. Italiano

21%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

20	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
67	Possession %	33
9	Corners	2
9	Fouls	16
2	Offsides	3
2	Saves	6
385	Accurate passes	164

Concepción vs A. Italiano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Concepción vs A. Italiano

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Concepción	Draw	A. Italiano
Model	67.8%	22.4%	9.9%
Market	47.4%	27.6%	25.0%
Final	52.5%	26.3%	21.2%
Edge	+20.3%	-5.2%	-15.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Concepción

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.60.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Concepción below the model: +20.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

72%

3+ goals

46%

No goals

Concepción and A. Italiano expected goals

Concepción

1.91

A. Italiano

0.60

Total expected goals: 2.51

Concepción and A. Italiano attack and defence ratings

Concepción

Attack

1.05 +5%

Defence

0.65 -35%

A. Italiano

Attack

0.80 -20%

Defence

1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Concepción vs A. Italiano: result vs prediction

Concepción 0 – 1 A. Italiano

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 22 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Everton de Vina v U. Catolica — match page · 2026-09-05
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
D. La Serena vs Nublense · 2026-09-06
O'Higgins v Union La Calera — match page · 2026-09-06
Huachipato vs Colo Colo — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2026-09-06
Deportes Limache v Cobresal — match page · 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

Concepción, previous: Nublense vs Concepción prediction
Concepción, next: Colo Colo – Concepción, 2026-09-13
A. Italiano, previous: Colo Colo v A. Italiano analysis
A. Italiano, next: A. Italiano v O'Higgins analysis

Concepción vs A. Italiano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Concepción	52.5%	1.90	+20.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	54.2%	1.84	—	—
Both teams to score	No	60.7%	1.65	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	78.8%	1.27	—	—
Handicap -1	Concepción win	42.4%	2.36	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Concepción	52.5%
	Draw	26.3%
	A. Italiano	21.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45.8%
	Under 2.5	54.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	39.3%
	No	60.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	78.8%
	12 (either side)	73.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	47.5%
Handicap -1	Concepción win	42.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	25.4%
	Loss	32.2%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	14.8%
	1-0	14.6%
	1-1	10.3%

Concepción vs A. Italiano stats

Concepción and A. Italiano recent form

newest first

Concepción	WDWWWW
A. Italiano	LDDDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Concepción and A. Italiano going into this match

league record before kick-off

Concepción record

They have won 9 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 21 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).

A. Italiano record

They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Concepción vs A. Italiano head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

0Concepción wins 1Draws 2A. Italiano wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-13	A. Italiano	Concepción	Chile Primera División	3-0
2025-05-07	A. Italiano	Concepción	Copa Chile	2-1
2025-04-06	Concepción	A. Italiano	Copa Chile	0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Concepción vs A. Italiano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 27.6%, away 25.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.98	3.35	3.50
1xBet	1.87	3.30	3.78
Bet365	1.95	3.40	3.70
BetVictor	1.93	3.40	3.70
Betano	2.00	3.40	3.90
Betfair	1.91	3.30	3.60
Dafabet	2.02	3.45	3.80
Marathonbet	1.94	3.34	3.78
Pinnacle	1.98	3.44	4.00
SBO	1.94	3.02	3.31
Superbet	2.05	3.30	3.45
Unibet	2.04	3.35	3.55
William Hill	1.91	3.10	3.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.04

X 3.35 ▼ -0.05

2 3.70 ▲ +0.08

11 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-30T20:10:18Z.