Chile Primera División
·
Full time
·Matchday 23
A. Italiano
vs
O'Higgins
1 – 0 Full time
| 22′ | Ignacio Schor | ||
| 27′ | Giovani Chiaverano Meroi | ||
| 40′ | Raimundo Rebolledo | ||
| 45′ | Ignacio SchorSantiago Federico Toloza | ||
| 49′ | Luis Pavez | ||
| 65′ | Bastián YáñezThiago Vecino | ||
| 66′ | Paolo Guajardo | ||
| 72′ | Giovani Chiaverano MeroiMichael Fuentes | ||
| 74′ | Enzo Ferrario | ||
| 74′ | Arnaldo Castillo | ||
| 78′ | Paolo GuajardoDiego Monreal | ||
| 83′ | Felipe OgazTomas Avilés | ||
| 83′ | Juan LeivaJoaquín Edgardo Muñoz Riffo | ||
| 90′ | Franco TroyanskyF. Loyola | ||
| 90′ | Michael Fuentes | ||
| 90′ | Raimundo RebolledoOliver Rojas | ||
| 90′ | F. Loyola | ||
| 90′ | Luis PavezJoaquín Tapia |
A. Italiano
39%
Draw
28%
O'Higgins
33%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 2 |
| 203 | Accurate passes | 448 |
A. Italiano vs O'Higgins overview
Garuda Lions analysis: A. Italiano vs O'Higgins
| Probability | A. Italiano | Draw | O'Higgins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.3% | 29.2% | 26.5% |
| Market | 36.8% | 27.9% | 35.4% |
| Final | 38.7% | 28.2% | 33.2% |
| Edge | +7.5% | +1.3% | -8.8% |
Why A. Italiano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.05.
- The market prices A. Italiano below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
10%
A. Italiano and O'Higgins expected goals
A. Italiano
1.42
O'Higgins
1.05
Total expected goals: 2.47
A. Italiano and O'Higgins attack and defence ratings
A. Italiano
Attack
0.78 -22%
Defence
1.02 +2%
O'Higgins
Attack
0.89 -11%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
A. Italiano vs O'Higgins: result vs prediction
A. Italiano 1 – 0 O'Higgins
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
A. Italiano vs O'Higgins markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | A. Italiano | 38.7% | 2.59 | +7.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | A. Italiano | 38.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| O'Higgins | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | A. Italiano win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
A. Italiano vs O'Higgins stats
A. Italiano and O'Higgins recent form
| A. Italiano |
WLDDDW |
| O'Higgins |
WLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
A. Italiano and O'Higgins going into this match
A. Italiano record
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
O'Higgins record
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
A. Italiano vs O'Higgins head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4A. Italiano wins
2Draws
4O'Higgins wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | O'Higgins | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | O'Higgins | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-13 | A. Italiano | O'Higgins | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-30 | A. Italiano | O'Higgins | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-06 | O'Higgins | A. Italiano | Primera División | 0-5 |
| 2023-09-03 | O'Higgins | A. Italiano | Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-03 | A. Italiano | O'Higgins | Copa Chile | 0-2 |
| 2023-03-13 | A. Italiano | O'Higgins | Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2022-07-31 | A. Italiano | O'Higgins | Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-06 | O'Higgins | A. Italiano | Primera División | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
A. Italiano vs O'Higgins odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 27.9%, away 35.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.45 | 3.35 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.55 |
| 888Sport | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 3.24 | 2.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.36 | 2.77 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 3.07 | 2.56 |
| Unibet | 2.48 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.50 ▲ +0.19
X
3.30 ▲ +0.05
2
2.60 ▼ -0.50
15 snapshots recorded, from .