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Chile Primera División · Full time ·Matchday 23

Palestino vs U. Catolica

2 – 3 Full time

2′Fernando Zampedri
22′Diego Corral Contreras
29′Enzo Roco
45′Marcelo EggelIan Zohar Alegría Pindal
47′Fernando Zuqui
53′Cristian Cuevas
55′Joe Abrigo
57′Joe Abrigo
61′Fernando ZuquiAgustín Farías
62′Diego Corral ContrerasMartin Gomez
73′Fernando Zampedri
75′Ronnie FernándezFrancisco Montes
75′Sebastian GallegosGonzalo Tapia
82′Matias PalavecinoJimmy Martínez
82′Sebastián Andrés Arancibia FloresBernardo Cerezo
87′Jimmy Martínez
90′ Antonio CezaAlbert Gómez
90′Fernando ZampedriNicolás L'Huillier
90′Nicolás L'Huillier
90′César Munder

Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Santiago de ChileReferee: Cristian Garay, Chile

Palestino 36%
Draw 27%
U. Catolica 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 6
58 Possession % 42
6 Corners 5
9 Fouls 22
4 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4
347 Accurate passes 245

Palestino vs U. Catolica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Palestino vs U. Catolica

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPalestinoDrawU. Catolica
Model46.9%26.9%26.2%
Market32.0%27.6%40.5%
Final35.7%27.4%36.9%
Edge+14.9%-0.7%-14.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Palestino ↓ / U. Catolica → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Palestino and U. Catolica expected goals

Palestino 1.62
U. Catolica 1.17

Total expected goals: 2.79

Palestino and U. Catolica attack and defence ratings

Palestino

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.86 -14%

U. Catolica

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Palestino vs U. Catolica: result vs prediction

Palestino 2 – 3 U. Catolica

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Before and after this match

Palestino vs U. Catolica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 U. Catolica 36.9% 2.71 -14.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.0% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.5% 1.77 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 73.6% 1.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Palestino35.7%
Draw27.4%
U. Catolica36.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%
Both teams to scoreYes56.5%
No43.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.1%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)64.3%
Handicap -1U. Catolica win11.0%
Push (exactly one goal)15.3%
Loss73.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
2-19.4%
1-08.8%

Palestino vs U. Catolica stats

Palestino and U. Catolica recent form

newest first
Palestino WLWWLW
U. Catolica WWWLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Palestino and U. Catolica going into this match

league record before kick-off

Palestino record

  • They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).

U. Catolica record

  • They have won 12 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Palestino vs U. Catolica head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Palestino wins 3Draws 4U. Catolica wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-02U. CatolicaPalestinoChile Primera División6-1
2025-11-22U. CatolicaPalestinoChile Primera División2-1
2025-06-01PalestinoU. CatolicaChile Primera División1-1
2025-03-05U. CatolicaPalestinoCONMEBOL Sudamericana1-1
2024-08-03U. CatolicaPalestinoPrimera División1-1
2024-03-02PalestinoU. CatolicaPrimera División0-2
2023-08-13PalestinoU. CatolicaPrimera División3-0
2023-02-25U. CatolicaPalestinoPrimera División5-2
2022-07-24U. CatolicaPalestinoPrimera División0-1
2022-02-27PalestinoU. CatolicaPrimera División3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Palestino vs U. Catolica odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.0%, draw 27.2%, away 40.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.85 3.50 2.22
1xBet 2.90 3.30 2.22
888Sport 2.80 3.10 2.25
Bet365 3.00 3.30 2.35
BetVictor 2.90 3.50 2.30
Betano 3.00 3.45 2.35
Betfair 2.80 3.50 2.20
Dafabet 3.05 3.45 2.32
Marathonbet 2.90 3.36 2.29
Pinnacle 2.98 3.55 2.37
SBO 2.68 3.18 2.26
Superbet 2.95 3.30 2.27
Unibet 2.90 3.50 2.28
William Hill 2.80 3.20 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +0.24
X 3.36 ▲ +0.06
2 2.29 ▼ -0.12

13 snapshots recorded, from .