Union La Calera
vs
U. Catolica
Garuda Lions Prediction: U. Catolica
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.12.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — U. Catolica is the favourite, not a value bet.
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union La Calera vs U. Catolica
| Probability | Union La Calera | Draw | U. Catolica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.9% | 28.5% | 43.6% |
| Market | 25.6% | 26.6% | 47.7% |
| Final | 26.2% | 27.1% | 46.7% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +0.5% | -1.0% |
Why U. Catolica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 46.7% × 2.05 − 1).
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica match preview
Union La Calera faces U. Catolica in an upcoming Chile Primera División match. According to our model, U. Catolica has a 46% probability of winning, while Union La Calera stands at 26% and a draw at 27%. The expected goals for Union La Calera is 1.12, compared to U. Catolica's 1.46, indicating a slight edge for the visitors in offensive potential. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Union La Calera has recorded a series of mixed results with their last six matches yielding two draws, one win, and three losses. Conversely, U. Catolica has shown stronger performance, winning four of their last six games, although they did experience a loss in their most recent match. Both teams have a 53% probability of scoring, suggesting a competitive encounter ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union La Calera and U. Catolica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Union La Calera and U. Catolica attack and defence ratings
Union La Calera
U. Catolica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 46.7% | 2.14 | -1.0% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union La Calera | 26.2% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| U. Catolica | 46.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | U. Catolica win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica stats
Union La Calera and U. Catolica recent form
| Union La Calera |
DWLLDL |
| U. Catolica |
WWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union La Calera and U. Catolica season so far
Union La Calera record
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
U. Catolica record
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | U. Catolica | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-06 | U. Catolica | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-20 | Union La Calera | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union La Calera vs U. Catolica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.6%, draw 26.6%, away 47.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.63 | 3.40 | 1.87 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.50 | 2.03 |
| Marathonbet | 3.66 | 3.48 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 3.68 | 3.56 | 1.98 |
| SBO | 3.20 | 3.07 | 1.96 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .