Universidad de Chile
vs
Everton de Vina
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universidad de Chile
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.25.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Universidad de Chile is the favourite, not a value bet.
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina
| Probability | Universidad de Chile | Draw | Everton de Vina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.8% | 19.8% | 17.4% |
| Market | 56.2% | 23.9% | 19.8% |
| Final | 57.9% | 22.9% | 19.2% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -1.0% | -0.6% |
Why Universidad de Chile
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.25.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (our 57.9% × 1.67 − 1).
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina match preview
Universidad de Chile enters this match with a probability of 58% to win, while Everton de Vina has a 19% chance of victory, and a draw stands at 23%. The expected goals for Universidad de Chile are 2.44 compared to Everton de Vina's 1.25, suggesting a favorable offensive outlook for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Universidad de Chile has recorded three wins, two losses, and one draw in their last six matches, while Everton de Vina has achieved four wins, one loss, and one draw in the same timeframe. The model indicates a 71% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance that both teams will score, highlighting an expectation for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina attack and defence ratings
Universidad de Chile
Everton de Vina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Chile | 57.9% | 1.73 | +1.6% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Chile win | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Chile | 57.9% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Everton de Vina | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% |
| No | 34.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Chile win | 42.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 37.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | |
| 3-1 | 7.6% |
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina stats
Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina recent form
| Universidad de Chile |
WWWLLW |
| Everton de Vina |
WWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universidad de Chile and Everton de Vina season so far
Universidad de Chile record
- They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Everton de Vina record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Everton de Vina | Universidad de Chile | Chile Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Universidad de Chile | Everton de Vina | Chile Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-27 | Everton de Vina | Universidad de Chile | Chile Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.2%, draw 23.9%, away 19.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 3.85 | 4.58 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.05 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.82 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 4.06 | 4.73 |
| SBO | 1.56 | 3.60 | 4.41 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .