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Chile Primera División · ·Matchday 25

D. La Serena vs Concepción

Garuda Lions Prediction: D. La Serena

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — D. La Serena is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on D. La Serena

La Portada, La SerenaReferee: Mathias Riquelme

D. La Serena 38%
Draw 28%
Concepción 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance D. La Serena wins
38%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
92%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
55%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

D. La Serena vs Concepción overview

Garuda Lions analysis: D. La Serena vs Concepción

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityD. La SerenaDrawConcepción
Model30.7%28.2%41.1%
Market41.0%27.7%31.3%
Final38.4%27.8%33.7%
Edge-2.6%+0.1%+2.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why D. La Serena

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 2.35 − 1).

D. La Serena vs Concepción match preview

D. La Serena faces Concepción in what promises to be a competitive match in the Chile Primera División. According to our model, both teams have an equal chance of winning, with probabilities set at 36% for D. La Serena, 28% for a draw, and 36% for Concepción. The expected goals for D. La Serena is 1.23, while Concepción has a slightly higher expectation at 1.45. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of D. La Serena, occurring with an 8% probability.

In terms of recent form, D. La Serena has recorded two wins in their last five matches, while Concepción has managed two wins as well. The head-to-head record shows that in their last encounter, there were no wins for either side, resulting in one draw. Our model indicates a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

D. La Serena ↓ / Concepción → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

D. La Serena and Concepción expected goals

D. La Serena 1.23
Concepción 1.45

Total expected goals: 2.68

D. La Serena and Concepción attack and defence ratings

D. La Serena

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Concepción

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.67 -33%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Before and after this match

D. La Serena vs Concepción markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 D. La Serena 38.4% 2.60 -2.6% 2.35
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.2% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.4% 1.80 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.2% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.3% 1.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2D. La Serena38.4%
Draw27.8%
Concepción33.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%
Both teams to scoreYes55.4%
No44.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.3%
12 (either side)72.2%
X2 (draw or away)61.6%
Handicap -1D. La Serena win13.4%
Push (exactly one goal)17.3%
Loss69.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-28.9%
0-18.7%
Compare prices for this pick

D. La Serena vs Concepción stats

D. La Serena and Concepción recent form

newest first
D. La Serena LLWWDW
Concepción DDLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

D. La Serena and Concepción season so far

league record

D. La Serena record

  • They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.

Concepción record

  • They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).

D. La Serena vs Concepción head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0D. La Serena wins 1Draws 0Concepción wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19ConcepciónD. La SerenaChile Primera División3-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

D. La Serena vs Concepción odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.0%, draw 27.7%, away 31.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.22 3.20 2.96
Bet365 2.30 3.40 2.90
BetVictor 2.20 3.30 3.00
Betano 2.27 3.45 3.10
Betfair 2.20 3.30 2.90
Dafabet 2.30 3.45 3.05
Marathonbet 2.22 3.44 2.90
Pinnacle 2.35 3.32 3.04
SBO 2.14 3.07 2.78
William Hill 2.25 3.10 2.88
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.24 ▼ -0.01
X 3.31 ▲ +0.01
2 2.93 ▼ -0.06

23 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 D. La Serena Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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