Universidad de Concepcion
vs
Deportes Limache
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportes Limache
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportes Limache is the favourite, not a value bet.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache
| Probability | Universidad de Concepcion | Draw | Deportes Limache |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.0% | 27.8% | 45.2% |
| Market | 34.9% | 25.9% | 39.2% |
| Final | 32.9% | 26.4% | 40.7% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +0.5% | +1.5% |
Why Deportes Limache
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.43 − 1).
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache match preview
Universidad de Concepcion faces Deportes Limache in a match where the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Universidad de Concepcion at 33%, a draw at 27%, and Deportes Limache leading at 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Expected goals suggest that Universidad de Concepcion will score around 1.14, while Deportes Limache is projected to net 1.54.
In terms of recent form, Universidad de Concepcion has struggled with a record of D-L-L-L-W-L, while Deportes Limache has shown better performance with D-L-W-W-L-W. Both teams have a 55% chance of scoring, and there is a 50% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, indicating moderate certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache attack and defence ratings
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Limache
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Limache | 40.7% | 2.46 | +1.5% | 2.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Concepcion | 32.9% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Deportes Limache | 40.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Limache win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache stats
Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache recent form
| Universidad de Concepcion |
DLLLWL |
| Deportes Limache |
DLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache season so far
Universidad de Concepcion record
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 23 matches.
Deportes Limache record
- They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Deportes Limache | Universidad de Concepcion | Chile Primera División | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 25.9%, away 39.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.65 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.65 | 2.43 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.79 | 3.57 | 2.40 |
| SBO | 2.57 | 3.20 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .