Colo Colo
vs
Universidad de Concepcion
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colo Colo
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.73.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Colo Colo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion
| Probability | Colo Colo | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.0% | 15.6% | 7.4% |
| Market | 72.8% | 16.8% | 10.4% |
| Final | 73.9% | 16.5% | 9.7% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.3% | -0.8% |
Why Colo Colo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (our 73.9% × 1.32 − 1).
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion match preview
Colo Colo enters the match against Universidad de Concepcion with a strong probability of winning at 80%. Their recent form shows a mixed bag of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Universidad de Concepcion has struggled, recording one win and four losses in their recent outings.
The expected goals for Colo Colo stand at 2.94, while Universidad de Concepcion is projected at just 0.80, suggesting a significant disparity in offensive capabilities. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0 in favor of Colo Colo, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Additionally, there is a 53% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colo Colo and Universidad de Concepcion expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.35
Colo Colo and Universidad de Concepcion attack and defence ratings
Colo Colo
Universidad de Concepcion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colo Colo | 73.9% | 1.35 | +1.1% | 1.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Colo Colo win | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colo Colo | 73.9% |
| Draw | 16.5% | |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 9.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.7% |
| No | 51.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colo Colo win | 56.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 23.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 3-0 | 10.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion stats
Colo Colo and Universidad de Concepcion recent form
| Colo Colo |
DLDDWW |
| Universidad de Concepcion |
LDLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colo Colo and Universidad de Concepcion season so far
Colo Colo record
- They have won 17 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universidad de Concepcion record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Universidad de Concepcion | Colo Colo | Chile Primera División | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.8%, draw 16.8%, away 10.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 5.30 | 8.75 |
| Betano | 1.32 | 5.60 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.30 | 5.80 | 9.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.26 | 5.40 | 9.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27 | 5.94 | 8.93 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .