U. Catolica
vs
Universidad de Chile
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universidad de Chile
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.44.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile overview
Garuda Lions analysis: U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile
| Probability | U. Catolica | Draw | Universidad de Chile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 22.1% | 53.7% |
| Market | 39.4% | 27.8% | 32.7% |
| Final | 35.6% | 26.4% | 38.0% |
| Edge | -3.8% | -1.4% | +5.3% |
Why Universidad de Chile
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.44.
- The market prices Universidad de Chile below our published probability: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.9% per unit staked (our 38.0% × 2.92 − 1).
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile match preview
U. Catolica faces Universidad de Chile in a matchup where both teams show competitive form. U. Catolica has a probability of 36% to win, while Universidad de Chile holds a slightly higher probability at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with Universidad de Chile expected to score 2.19 goals compared to U. Catolica's 1.44.
Recent performances indicate a mixed bag for both sides, with U. Catolica recording a sequence of L-W-W-W-W-L and Universidad de Chile showing W-W-W-L-L-W. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score. In their last three encounters, Universidad de Chile has won twice against U. Catolica's single victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.62
U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile attack and defence ratings
U. Catolica
Universidad de Chile
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Chile | 38.0% | 2.63 | +5.3% | 2.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 35.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Universidad de Chile | 38.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% |
| No | 31.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Chile win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 1-3 | 6.7% |
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile stats
U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile recent form
| U. Catolica |
LWWWWL |
| Universidad de Chile |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile season so far
U. Catolica record
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universidad de Chile record
- They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Universidad de Chile | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | U. Catolica | Universidad de Chile | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Universidad de Chile | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.4%, draw 27.8%, away 32.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.25 | 2.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.40 | 2.92 |
| Marathonbet | 2.33 | 3.32 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .