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Chile Primera División · Full time ·Matchday 24

U. Catolica vs A. Italiano

1 – 1 Full time

28′Fernando Zampedri
34′Enzo Ferrario
42′Raimundo Rebolledo
45′Fernando Zuqui
45′Michael Fuentes
45′Justo GianiDaniel Gonzales
45′Mario Eduardo SandovalFederico Mateos
49′Paolo Guajardo
50′Clemente Montes
55′César Pinares
57′Alfred CanalesMatias Palavecino
57′Daniel GonzalesSebastián Andrés Arancibia Flores
59′César Pinares
65′Diego CoelhoFranco Troyansky
72′César PinaresOliver Rojas
72′Eugenio MenaDiego Valencia
79′Clemente MontesMartin Gomez
83′Paolo GuajardoDiego Monreal
83′Giovani Chiaverano MeroiNicolás Orellana
88′Felipe Salomoni
90′Fernando Zampedri
90′Tomas Ahumada

San Carlos de Apoquindo, SantiagoReferee: Mathias Riquelme

U. Catolica 57%
Draw 25%
A. Italiano 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 3
62 Possession % 38
6 Corners 3
12 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 0
2 Saves 3
382 Accurate passes 206

U. Catolica vs A. Italiano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: U. Catolica vs A. Italiano

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityU. CatolicaDrawA. Italiano
Model52.5%26.0%21.5%
Market57.8%24.4%17.8%
Final56.5%24.8%18.7%
Edge-1.3%+0.4%+0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why U. Catolica

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

U. Catolica ↓ / A. Italiano → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 12% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

U. Catolica and A. Italiano expected goals

U. Catolica 1.73
A. Italiano 1.04

Total expected goals: 2.77

U. Catolica and A. Italiano attack and defence ratings

U. Catolica

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 1.15 +15%

A. Italiano

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

U. Catolica vs A. Italiano: result vs prediction

U. Catolica 1 – 1 A. Italiano

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Chile Primera División

Before and after this match

U. Catolica vs A. Italiano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 U. Catolica 56.5% 1.77 -1.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.3% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.3% 1.84 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.3% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.5% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2U. Catolica56.5%
Draw24.8%
A. Italiano18.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%
Both teams to scoreYes54.3%
No45.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.3%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)43.5%
Handicap -1U. Catolica win29.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.9%
Loss47.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.4%
2-19.8%
1-09.7%

U. Catolica vs A. Italiano stats

U. Catolica and A. Italiano recent form

newest first
U. Catolica LWWWWL
A. Italiano DWWLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

U. Catolica and A. Italiano going into this match

league record before kick-off

U. Catolica record

  • They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

A. Italiano record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

U. Catolica vs A. Italiano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4U. Catolica wins 3Draws 3A. Italiano wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11A. ItalianoU. CatolicaChile Primera División3-4
2025-07-20A. ItalianoU. CatolicaChile Primera División1-1
2025-02-17U. CatolicaA. ItalianoChile Primera División3-1
2024-08-18A. ItalianoU. CatolicaPrimera División2-1
2024-03-17U. CatolicaA. ItalianoPrimera División0-0
2023-08-05U. CatolicaA. ItalianoPrimera División0-2
2023-03-06A. ItalianoU. CatolicaCONMEBOL Sudamericana3-2
2023-02-18A. ItalianoU. CatolicaPrimera División1-2
2022-10-31U. CatolicaA. ItalianoPrimera División0-0
2022-08-20U. CatolicaA. ItalianoCopa Chile3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

U. Catolica vs A. Italiano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.1%, draw 23.9%, away 18.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.57 3.80 4.97
Bet365 1.60 3.80 5.25
BetVictor 1.60 3.75 5.00
Betano 1.65 4.10 5.60
Betfair 1.47 4.00 5.00
Dafabet 1.62 4.30 5.20
Marathonbet 1.56 3.92 5.25
Pinnacle 1.65 4.09 5.20
SBO 1.55 3.67 4.84
William Hill 1.57 3.70 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▲ +0.08
X 3.80 ▼ -0.23
2 5.20 ▼ -0.36

35 snapshots recorded, from .