U. Catolica
vs
A. Italiano
Garuda Lions Prediction: U. Catolica
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: U. Catolica vs A. Italiano
| Probability | U. Catolica | Draw | A. Italiano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.3% | 24.4% | 17.3% |
| Market | 60.6% | 22.9% | 16.6% |
| Final | 60.0% | 23.2% | 16.7% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +1.5% | +0.7% |
Why U. Catolica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano match preview
U. Catolica enters the match against A. Italiano with a strong probability of winning at 60%. Their recent form shows four wins followed by two losses, indicating a competitive edge. The expected goals for U. Catolica stand at 1.87, suggesting they are likely to create more scoring opportunities compared to A. Italiano, whose expected goals are at 0.93.
In their last three encounters, U. Catolica has secured two wins and one draw against A. Italiano, who has yet to win in this matchup. The likelihood of a high-scoring game is supported by a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals, while both teams scoring has a probability of 52%. The most probable scoreline is 2-0 in favor of U. Catolica, reflecting their dominant position in this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
U. Catolica and A. Italiano expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
U. Catolica and A. Italiano attack and defence ratings
U. Catolica
A. Italiano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 60.0% | 1.67 | -2.2% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 60.0% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| A. Italiano | 16.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% |
| No | 47.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | U. Catolica win | 34.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 41.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | |
| 1-0 | 10.3% |
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano stats
U. Catolica and A. Italiano recent form
| U. Catolica |
WWWWLL |
| A. Italiano |
WWLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
U. Catolica and A. Italiano season so far
U. Catolica record
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
A. Italiano record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | A. Italiano | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 3-4 |
| 2025-07-20 | A. Italiano | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-17 | U. Catolica | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | A. Italiano | U. Catolica | Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | U. Catolica | A. Italiano | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-05 | U. Catolica | A. Italiano | Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2023-03-06 | A. Italiano | U. Catolica | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 3-2 |
| 2023-02-18 | A. Italiano | U. Catolica | Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2022-10-31 | U. Catolica | A. Italiano | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-20 | U. Catolica | A. Italiano | Copa Chile | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.6%, draw 22.9%, away 16.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.05 | 5.59 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.15 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 4.05 | 5.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.55 | 4.22 | 5.60 |
| SBO | 1.49 | 3.73 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .