A. Italiano
vs
Huachipato
Garuda Lions Prediction: A. Italiano
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — A. Italiano is the favourite, not a value bet.
A. Italiano vs Huachipato overview
Garuda Lions analysis: A. Italiano vs Huachipato
| Probability | A. Italiano | Draw | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 29.7% | 25.7% |
| Market | 45.9% | 27.0% | 27.1% |
| Final | 45.6% | 27.7% | 26.8% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.7% | -0.4% |
Why A. Italiano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.99.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 45.6% × 2.10 − 1).
A. Italiano vs Huachipato match preview
A. Italiano faces Huachipato in their upcoming Chile Primera División match, with A. Italiano holding a 46% probability of winning compared to Huachipato's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood. A. Italiano has shown solid recent form with two wins and four matches without a loss, while Huachipato has recorded three wins in their last six matches, but also two losses.
In terms of expected goals, A. Italiano is projected to score 1.38, while Huachipato is expected to net 0.99. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 42%, and there is a 48% chance that both teams will score. In their last three encounters, A. Italiano has won once, while Huachipato has secured two victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
A. Italiano and Huachipato expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
A. Italiano and Huachipato attack and defence ratings
A. Italiano
Huachipato
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
A. Italiano vs Huachipato markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | A. Italiano | 45.6% | 2.19 | -0.3% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | A. Italiano | 45.6% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Huachipato | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.5% |
| No | 51.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | A. Italiano win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
A. Italiano vs Huachipato stats
A. Italiano and Huachipato recent form
| A. Italiano |
WWLDDD |
| Huachipato |
WWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
A. Italiano and Huachipato season so far
A. Italiano record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Huachipato record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
A. Italiano vs Huachipato head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Huachipato | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Huachipato | A. Italiano | Chile Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Huachipato | A. Italiano | Copa Chile | 4-2 |
| 2025-09-29 | A. Italiano | Huachipato | Copa Chile | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-26 | A. Italiano | Huachipato | Chile Primera División | 4-3 |
| 2024-10-20 | A. Italiano | Huachipato | Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2024-05-21 | Huachipato | A. Italiano | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-08 | Huachipato | A. Italiano | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-19 | A. Italiano | Huachipato | Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2022-07-09 | A. Italiano | Huachipato | Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
A. Italiano vs Huachipato odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.9%, draw 27.0%, away 27.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.35 | 3.37 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.38 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.52 | 3.39 |
| SBO | 1.97 | 3.14 | 3.09 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .