Huachipato
vs
D. La Serena
Garuda Lions Prediction: Huachipato
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Huachipato is the favourite, not a value bet.
Huachipato vs D. La Serena overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Huachipato vs D. La Serena
| Probability | Huachipato | Draw | D. La Serena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.8% | 25.1% | 32.1% |
| Market | 41.9% | 26.5% | 31.6% |
| Final | 42.2% | 26.1% | 31.7% |
| Edge | +0.2% | -0.3% | +0.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (our 42.2% × 2.28 − 1).
Huachipato vs D. La Serena match preview
In the upcoming match between Huachipato and D. La Serena, Huachipato holds a slight advantage with a 46% probability of winning compared to D. La Serena's 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Huachipato, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, as the model indicates a 65% chance that both will find the net.
Recent form shows Huachipato with mixed results, recording two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, D. La Serena has experienced a more varied run, with three wins, two losses, and one draw in their recent outings. The expected goals for Huachipato stand at 1.75, while D. La Serena is projected to score 1.50.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Huachipato and D. La Serena expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Huachipato and D. La Serena attack and defence ratings
Huachipato
D. La Serena
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Huachipato vs D. La Serena markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Huachipato | 42.2% | 2.37 | +0.2% | 2.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Huachipato | 42.2% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| D. La Serena | 31.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Huachipato win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Huachipato vs D. La Serena stats
Huachipato and D. La Serena recent form
| Huachipato |
DWWDWL |
| D. La Serena |
WLLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Huachipato and D. La Serena season so far
Huachipato record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
D. La Serena record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
Huachipato vs D. La Serena head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | D. La Serena | Huachipato | Chile Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | D. La Serena | Huachipato | Chile Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-30 | Huachipato | D. La Serena | Chile Primera División | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Huachipato vs D. La Serena odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.9%, draw 26.5%, away 31.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.45 | 2.91 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.52 | 2.83 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.58 | 2.97 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .