Union La Calera
vs
Huachipato
Garuda Lions Prediction: Union La Calera
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Union La Calera is the favourite, not a value bet.
Union La Calera vs Huachipato overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union La Calera vs Huachipato
| Probability | Union La Calera | Draw | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.3% | 32.4% | 26.3% |
| Market | 47.5% | 26.9% | 25.6% |
| Final | 46.0% | 28.2% | 25.8% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +1.4% | +0.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 2.00 − 1).
Union La Calera vs Huachipato match preview
Union La Calera faces Huachipato in the Chile Primera División with a predicted probability of 46% for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 26% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Union La Calera, with a 14% chance of occurring. Expected goals for Union La Calera stand at 1.18, while Huachipato is projected at 0.89.
In terms of recent form, Union La Calera has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Huachipato is in better shape, with three wins and three draws in the same period. In their last three encounters, Union La Calera has won once, while Huachipato has secured two victories. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union La Calera and Huachipato expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.08
Union La Calera and Huachipato attack and defence ratings
Union La Calera
Huachipato
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Union La Calera vs Huachipato markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union La Calera | 46.0% | 2.17 | -1.6% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union La Calera | 46.0% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Huachipato | 25.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.3% |
| No | 57.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union La Calera win | 18.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 13.9% | |
| 1-0 | 13.5% |
Union La Calera vs Huachipato stats
Union La Calera and Huachipato recent form
| Union La Calera |
LWDWLL |
| Huachipato |
DDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union La Calera and Huachipato season so far
Union La Calera record
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Huachipato record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Union La Calera vs Huachipato head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Huachipato | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Huachipato | Union La Calera | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-07 | Union La Calera | Huachipato | Chile Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union La Calera vs Huachipato odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.5%, draw 26.9%, away 25.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.40 | 3.67 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.62 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.50 | 3.82 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.11 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .