Everton de Vina
vs
Concepción
Garuda Lions Prediction: Everton de Vina
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.21.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Everton de Vina is the favourite, not a value bet.
Everton de Vina vs Concepción overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Everton de Vina vs Concepción
| Probability | Everton de Vina | Draw | Concepción |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 26.7% | 27.0% |
| Market | 50.7% | 26.5% | 22.8% |
| Final | 49.6% | 26.5% | 23.9% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.0% | +1.1% |
Why Everton de Vina
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (our 49.6% × 1.88 − 1).
Everton de Vina vs Concepción match preview
Everton de Vina holds a 50% probability of winning against Concepción, with a draw at 26% and Concepción at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for Everton de Vina is 1.64, while Concepción is projected at 1.21.
In terms of recent form, Everton de Vina has recorded a mixed performance with results of D-L-W-W-L-W, whereas Concepción has shown some resilience with W-L-D-D-L-W. Our model indicates a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, suggesting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Everton de Vina and Concepción expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Everton de Vina and Concepción attack and defence ratings
Everton de Vina
Concepción
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins — team news & stats
- D. La Serena v Palestino — match page
- Universidad de Chile v Cobresal — match page
- Union La Calera v Huachipato — match page
- A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido — team news & stats
- Nublense vs Colo Colo
- U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Everton de Vina vs Concepción markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton de Vina | 49.6% | 2.02 | -1.1% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton de Vina | 49.6% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Concepción | 23.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Everton de Vina win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Everton de Vina vs Concepción stats
Everton de Vina and Concepción recent form
| Everton de Vina |
DLWWLW |
| Concepción |
WLDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Everton de Vina and Concepción season so far
Everton de Vina record
- They have won 10 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Concepción record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
Everton de Vina vs Concepción head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Concepción | Everton de Vina | Chile Primera División | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Everton de Vina vs Concepción odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.7%, draw 26.5%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.50 | 4.06 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.71 | 4.16 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.16 | 3.46 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .