U. Catolica
vs
Deportes Limache
Garuda Lions Prediction: U. Catolica
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.29.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — U. Catolica is the favourite, not a value bet.
U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache overview
Garuda Lions analysis: U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache
| Probability | U. Catolica | Draw | Deportes Limache |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.3% | 25.6% | 27.1% |
| Market | 62.1% | 21.2% | 16.7% |
| Final | 58.4% | 22.3% | 19.3% |
| Edge | -3.7% | +1.1% | +2.6% |
Why U. Catolica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.29.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.5% per unit staked (our 58.4% × 1.55 − 1).
U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache match preview
U. Catolica enters this match with a strong probability of 60% to win against Deportes Limache, who have an 18% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of U. Catolica, with an expected goals tally of 1.95 for U. Catolica and 1.26 for Deportes Limache. Both teams are projected to score, with a 62% likelihood for over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, U. Catolica has won three of their last six matches, while Deportes Limache has also shown some resilience with three wins in their last six. Historically, U. Catolica has dominated their recent encounters, winning all three of their last head-to-head meetings against Deportes Limache. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
U. Catolica and Deportes Limache expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.04
U. Catolica and Deportes Limache attack and defence ratings
U. Catolica
Deportes Limache
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 58.4% | 1.71 | -3.7% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U. Catolica | 58.4% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Deportes Limache | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | U. Catolica win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache stats
U. Catolica and Deportes Limache recent form
| U. Catolica |
WDLWWW |
| Deportes Limache |
WWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
U. Catolica and Deportes Limache season so far
U. Catolica record
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Limache record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Deportes Limache | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Deportes Limache | U. Catolica | Chile Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | U. Catolica | Deportes Limache | Chile Primera División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.1%, draw 21.2%, away 16.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.20 | 5.51 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.45 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.55 | 5.43 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 4.00 | 4.73 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .